Resume af teksten:
Mindst 69 mennesker blev dræbt og snesevis såret ved en kollision mellem to højhastighedstog nær Urda i Toledo-provinsen.
De fleste store partier har indstillet deres valgkamp, mens ulykken undersøges.
Valget holdes 29. november, otte måneder før parlamentsperiodens planlagte afslutning.
De seneste målinger placerer Folkepartiet foran Socialistpartiet og peger på muligt flertal til Folkepartiet og Vox.
BNP voksede 0,6 procent i tredje kvartal og 2,7 procent i forhold til året før.
Arbejdsløsheden steg fra 9,87 til 10,18 procent, mens den harmoniserede inflation var 4,9 procent i oktober.
Boligpolitik udløste det tidlige valg efter parlamentets afvisning af to regeringsdekreter om blandt andet udsættelser og lejekontrakter.
Spanien fik omkring 1,22 millioner flere husstande fra 2021 til 2025, men færdiggjorde omkring 466.000 boliger.
Fra ING:
Spain’s general election campaign has been overshadowed by Wednesday’s deadly collision between two high-speed trains near Urda, in the Toledo province. At least 69 people were killed and dozens injured, prompting most major political parties to suspend their campaign activities. The circumstances remain under investigation. However, with the central government responsible for managing the national rail infrastructure, the accident is likely to put rail safety and the government’s handling of public services at the centre of the political debate when campaigning resumes. Alongside existing controversies, including corruption allegations involving figures associated with the Socialist Party, it could further complicate Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s re-election campaign.
When campaigning resumes, attention will return to an election in which the economy presents a strikingly mixed picture. Spain remains one of the eurozone’s strongest performers, yet this has not translated into a lead in the polls for Sánchez’s Socialist Party.
The latest figures illustrate that tension. GDP expanded by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter and by 2.7% compared with a year earlier. Growth therefore slowed only modestly from the previous quarter and remained well above the pace recorded in most other large eurozone economies.
The labour market data was less favourable. The unemployment rate increased from 9.87% to 10.18% in the third quarter. Employment rose by 73,600, but the labour force expanded by 169,500, leaving an additional 95,900 people unemployed. Private sector employment declined during the quarter, while public sector employment increased by almost 90,000.
Inflation adds to the mixed picture. Harmonised inflation remained at 4.9% in October. Retail sales fell by 1.4% year-on-year in September, following a revised 0.5% decline in August, adding to signs that consumer demand has softened.
The election on 29 November comes about eight months before the parliamentary term is scheduled to end. The centre-right People’s Party won the most seats in the 2023 election but could not assemble a parliamentary majority. That allowed Sánchez to remain in office with the backing of parties on the left and several Catalan and Basque nationalist parties.
The resulting parliamentary majority proved fragile. The government has not secured parliamentary approval for a new state budget since the 2023 budget was passed, leaving Spain to operate with successive budget extensions. Its position has also been weakened by a series of investigations and court cases involving senior Socialist figures and members of the prime minister’s family, disagreements among the parties on the left and growing concerns about immigration and housing affordability.
Housing provided the immediate trigger for the early election. Parliament rejected two government decrees that included stronger protection against evictions, extensions of expiring rental contracts and tighter regulation of temporary rentals. The votes followed public protests sparked by the eviction of an 87-year-old long-term tenant in Madrid. Soon afterwards, Sánchez dissolved parliament and called the election. The outgoing government subsequently approved revised versions of the measures, although their continued application depends in part on approval by parliament’s Permanent Deputation.
The Socialists are trying to present the vote as a choice between stronger social protection and an opposition that blocked measures intended to address the housing crisis. That is a risky strategy. Most recent polls put the People’s Party ahead of the Socialists and indicate that the People’s Party and Vox could together secure a majority in the 350-seat Congress.
Despite the dissolution of parliament, the outgoing government has continued to approve measures through the Council of Ministers. The government has presented these pre-election meetings as “ Social Tuesdays ”, with the first package combining changes to social-security benefits with more than €225m in housing and university accommodation support.
The 2027 minimum wage increase could provide the government with another opportunity to foreground social policy before the election. By contrast, CPI-linked pension increases and the agreed public sector pay rises largely reflect existing commitments rather than new campaign initiatives. Together, however, they underline the expenditure pressures that the next government will inherit. The monthly contributory-pension bill reached €14.54bn in October , 6.3% more than a year earlier.
Housing remains one of Spain’s most pressing economic and social challenges and was the immediate trigger for the election. Yet the campaign has so far focused less on the details of housing policy than on broader political controversies, migration and questions of government credibility.
The main political blocs nevertheless offer distinctly different responses to the housing shortage. The Socialists and parties further to the left have generally emphasised rent limits, longer contracts, eviction protection and public support for affordable housing. These measures can provide greater security for existing tenants, but do not directly increase the number of homes available.
The People’s Party places greater emphasis on expanding supply and facilitating homeownership. At a campaign event in Seville , party leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo pledged that a People’s Party-led government would promote the construction of one million homes during the next parliamentary term. He also promised a new Land Law within the government’s first 100 days, faster administrative procedures and closer cooperation with regional and municipal authorities to make more land available for development.
The party has additionally proposed mortgage guarantees covering up to 100% of the purchase price of a first home and a 60% reduction in VAT and property-transfer tax for buyers under 40. These measures could lower the initial barrier to homeownership, although supporting purchasing power without a sufficiently large supply response could also add to price pressures.
The underlying shortage is substantial. As we highlighted earlier this month , Spain added approximately 1.22 million households between 2021 and 2025 but completed only around 466,000 homes. House prices were still increasing by 12.2% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026.
Spain’s economic outperformance is more convincing in aggregate than at the household level. Population growth has supported employment, consumption and overall GDP, but it also means that output per person is increasing more slowly. This population growth has been driven largely by immigration, which has also become an important theme in the election campaign, particularly for Vox. Combined with modest productivity growth, this limits the improvement in average living standards.
At the same time, inflation and rapidly rising housing costs continue to weigh on household purchasing power. For many households, Spain’s strong headline growth therefore sits uneasily alongside a more limited improvement in their day-to-day economic situation. This helps explain why the government is receiving relatively little electoral benefit from the country’s macroeconomic outperformance.
The election result is unlikely to alter Spain’s short-term economic momentum dramatically. Although the parties differ on housing, taxation, labour-market regulation and public spending, the campaign has so far not centred on a comprehensive overhaul of economic policy. Any new government is also likely to depend on coalition partners or wider parliamentary support, meaning that campaign proposals may be moderated, renegotiated or delayed. Even where significant policy changes are agreed, they would take time to feed through to economic activity.
In the meantime, the near-term outlook will depend more on the energy shock and monetary tightening than on the vote. Investment support from the Recovery and Resilience Plan should also fade gradually now that the plan has formally ended. The medium-term consequences of the election could nevertheless be more important: a stable parliamentary majority could facilitate budgets and reforms, while another fragmented parliament could prolong Spain’s recent legislative difficulties.
Kilde: ING, https://think.ing.com/articles/spains-rental-dilemma-protecting-tenants-wont-fix-the-shortage/
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