Resume af teksten:
I august blev koreanske eksport styrket af AI-efterspørgsel, trods negative konsekvenser af amerikanske toldsatser. Eksporten steg med 1,3% år-over-år, mens importen faldt 4,0%. Semiconductor-eksporten voksede for sjette måned i træk med 27%, og biler steg 8,6%. Eksport til Kina faldt med 2,9%, og eksport til USA gik tilbage med 12,0% grundet toldsatser. Forventningen er, at eksportpræstationen vil bidrage positivt til tredje kvartals vækst. Sydkoreas finanspolitik vil sandsynligvis være ekspansiv til 2026 og støtte væksten, trods udfordringer med gældshåndtering. På kort sigt forventes Bank of Korea at overvåge bolig- og finansmarkederne, med en mulig rentenedsættelse i oktober.
Fra ING:
Strong global demand for AI boosted Korean exports in August while clearer signs of negative impact of US tariffs emerged. Looking forward, fiscal policy is likely to support growth in 2026, mitigating weak external demand and tariff shocks
Exports in August (YoY %)
Imports -4.0%
Exports growth decelerated but due to unfavorable calendar effects
South Korean exports growth moderated to 1.3% year-over-year in August (vs. revised 5.8% in July and 2.3% market consensus). But when adjusted for working days, average daily exports rose 5.8% YoY in August, about the same pace as in July. Thus, we believe August exports remained solid.
By item, three out of 15 major export items rose. Semiconductor exports rose 27%, marking a sixth consecutive month of growth. Vehicles rose 8.6% amid strong electric vehicle, hybrid and used car exports. Exports to the US declined, but shipments to the EU posted a strong gain. Meanwhile, petrochemical (-18.7%) and petroleum (-4.7%) exports fell due to lower global oil prices and oversupply issues.
By country, exports to China dropped 2.9% despite a healthy increase in chip exports. We believe that the recent weakness of exports to China is due to goods being rerouted to other Asian countries and China’s domestically driven recovery. Exports to the US declined by 12.0%, falling for four out of the last five months. US tariffs have clearly had an adverse effect on exports of cars and auto parts, but exports of tariff-exempt semiconductors increased.
We expect this solid export performance will contribute positively to third-quarter growth and that soft global commodity prices will likely widen the trade surplus. We believe September exports will post a robust increase partly due to the front-loading before the almost week-long Chuseok holiday in early October, but a significant dip is expected in October.
Putting aside the Chuseok holiday factor, the sustainability of this momentum remains uncertain. We are concerned that the export growth has been narrowly focused. We expect ship and chip exports to stay robust in the coming months, yet vehicle exports may decline amid tariffs and slowing demand. The outlook for petroleum and petrochemical exports is also cloudy, given global oversupply and weak prices.
While business surveys indicated some improvement in exports and manufacturing activity, a cautious outlook persists. Notably, today’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose modestly to 48.3 in August from 48. It continues to fall short of the neutral benchmark of 50.
Exports to ASEAN rose firmly thanks to strong chip exports
Source: CEIC
Fiscal policy will become expansionary over the next five years
The South Korean government’s 2026 budget and five-year fiscal management plan signal a clear shift toward an expansionary fiscal policy. In 2026, spending is projected to increase by 8.1% YoY compared to the original 2025 budget. However, when accounting for two rounds of supplementary budgets this year, the effective spending increase is estimated at 3.5%.
The details of the spending plan were in line with our expectations. The biggest rise was in R&D, which increased by 19.3%, and industry transition by 14.7%, in efforts to boost the domestic economy and address concerns regarding declining potential growth. Social welfare and defence spending also increased notably by 8.2% each.
We expect that strong R&D and industry support will boost growth in 2026, maintaining our GDP forecast of 1.8% for that year. Nevertheless, over the medium term, debt management could encounter challenges due to anticipated strong resistance to broadening the tax base. Additionally, thanks to the fast-rising government debt, fiscal sustainability may raise concerns.
The budget plan will be sent to the National Assembly, where the ruling Democratic Party’s control is expected to ensure its approval by the end of this year.
Higher fiscal support is allocated to R&D and industry transition
Source: MOEF, ING
Expansionary fiscal policy is expected over the next five years
Source: MOEF, ING
BoK watch
We don’t expect fiscal plans to significantly affect monetary policy decisions in the near term. The Bank of Korea is likely to continue monitoring developments in the housing and financial markets. We see October as the most likely timing for a rate cut. Current macro conditions are likely to support our view. August trade data indicates resilient exports despite tariffs, and consumer price index inflation due tomorrow is expected to ease thanks to temporary mobile phone bill cuts. Although Seoul housing prices remain a concern, stricter mortgage rules are expected to curb excessive demand in the coming months.
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