Resume af teksten:
Sydkoreanske eksport steg markant i marts, med en år-til-år-stigning på 48,3%, især drevet af stærk efterspørgsel efter chips, der steg med 151,4%. Halvlederkomponenter rapporterede en stigning på 139% for første kvartal. På trods af stigende priser er der ingen væsentlige materialemangel rapporteret for chips endnu, men forsyningsforstyrrelser kunne påvirke sektoren senere i 2026. Regeringen har fremlagt et ekstra budget på 26,2 billioner won for at modvirke effekten af Mellemøstlige chok, som ikke kræver yderligere statslig låntagning. BNP-væksten for 2026 er nedjusteret til 2,0% år-for-år, med risiko for yderligere fald i 2. kvartal 2026. Import steg med 13,2% år-til-år i marts, og handelsoverskuddet udvidede sig betydeligt til 25 milliarder dollars. Inflationsdata forventes at vise en stigning i forbrugerprisindekset (CPI) på 2,5% år-for-år i marts.
Fra ING:
South Korean exports surged in March, driven by favourable price effects and strong global chip demand. Supply constraints appear to be having a limited impact on key exports so far. Strong chip exports are likely to continue while the government’s supplementary budget absorbs some near-term shocks. We trimmed our 2026 GDP growth to 2.0% YoY from 2.2%
Source: Shutterstock
Exports (%YoY)
Exports jumped in March thanks to surge in chip exports
South Korean exports rose 48.3% year-on-year in March (vs 29% in February, 44.8% market consensus). Among 15 major export items, 10 items gained, largely due to favourable price effects. Semiconductor exports rose an impressive 151.4%, building on the 160.6% rise in February and 102.7% gain in January. Semiconductor exports jumped 139% YoY in the first quarter. Rising chip prices led to sharp increases in exports of computers and SSDs in March, up 189% and 218%, respectively. We expect strong demand for AI and memory chips to continue, with no significant signs of a slowdown in AI investment globally. But clearly, this is likely to add to inflationary pressures on IT goods globally – and, eventually, more burdens for consumers.
To date, semiconductors haven’t experienced significant shortages of raw materials. However, inventories of essential materials are expected to be depleted within the next few quarters. If supply disruptions persist, adverse effects could become evident in the second half of 2026. Given Korea’s high dependence on chips for growth, negative impacts could intensify later this year.
Chip exports surged while other exports also improved in 1Q26
Source: CEIC
Oil and petrochemical rise, exports expected to decline from April
We observe that recent increases in oil prices boosted petroleum and petrochemical exports in March, up 54.9% and 5.8%, respectively. However, the data showed that exports of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene fell in volume in the later part of March. The decline is mainly due to the implementation of export controls on 13 March.
Price effects worked favourably for now. However, since Korean exporters rely heavily on Middle Eastern products, we are more cautious about the export outlook for these sectors in the near term. The government has banned the exports of Naphtha and tightly controlled oil products since mid-March. The government is considering an emergency decree to manage key raw materials. We see a higher probability that short-term exports of oil and chemicals may be interrupted by these controls and supply disruptions.
Other than these two sectors, automobile exports rebounded 2.2%, following a 20.1% drop in February. Home appliances (-7.7%) and steel (-2.2%) also continued to drop, which seems more related to the US tariffs and weak global demand.
By export destination, exports to China and the US rose the most – by 64.2% and 47.1%, respectively. This was mostly driven by strong IT exports. Meanwhile, exports to the Middle East dropped 49.1% due to the ongoing war.
Imports growth accelerated in March
Imports rose 13.2% YoY in March (vs 7.5% in February, 15.3% market consensus). Despite the surge in crude oil prices, energy imports fell by 5%, mostly due to lower import volumes. Non-energy imports – semiconductors (34.8%) and chip-making equipment (4.4%) – rose 17.9%. The trade surplus widened quite significantly to $25 billion from the previous month’s $15 billion.
Government’s supplementary budget to reduce Middle East shock
The government proposed a 26.2 trillion won ($17.3 billion) extra budget to mitigate Middle East shocks. The spending plan features cash payments and energy subsidies for lower-income households and small business owners, as well as compensation for oil refiners affected by fuel price caps. Shopping vouchers ranging from 100,000 to 600,000 won ($70 to $400) per person will be distributed based on income. The extra budget won’t require additional debt issuance. Instead, the government would utilize excess tax revenues from robust chip exports and strong stock market performance. The government also offered 1 trillion won worth of KTB redemption to stabilise the market.
The extra budget will lift government spending in 2026 to 752.1 trillion won, an 11.8% year-on-year increase, projected to raise GDP by 0.2 percentage points. Both parties agreed to approve the bill by 10 April. If it passes, it may help support growth mostly in the second quarter of 2026.
GDP is expected to grow 2.0% YoY in 2026, yet downside risks are increasing
Solid March exports and a firm recovery in investment from yesterday’s monthly industrial production data suggested that 1Q26 GDP would rebound by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted (vs -0.2% in 4Q25). While consumption may have weakened with rising energy prices and severe corrections in equity markets, exports and investment should boost overall growth. The latest data showed that the Iran war’s impact is limited for first-quarter growth.
However, we expect the growth to slow more than expected in 2Q26. The disruption of supplies will dampen activity in the manufacturing sector and put more cost pressure – even if the war ends within a couple of weeks. At the same time, government-funded fiscal aid is likely to play a critical role in limiting the negative impact. Thus, we expect growth to decelerate to 0.2% QoQ but to avoid a contraction in 2Q26. Along with trimming down the 2Q26 and 3Q26 GDP, we have lowered our 2026 GDP outlook from 2.2% YoY to 2.0%. This implies that Korea growth remains above potential.
The March consumer price inflation data will be released tomorrow. We expect CPI inflation to rise to 2.5% YoY, slightly above the market consensus of 2.3%. Despite the government fuel price cap and a further fuel tax cut, petrol prices are expected to rise, while the recent sharp rise in import prices is expected to add pressure on broad goods prices. Higher energy prices for longer and supplementary budget measures could increase upward inflation risks in coming months.
If we are right about the resilience of the economy and a higher-inflation path, then the Bank of Korea’s policy focus will be on inflation stabilisation and financial stability. We expect the Bank of Korea to deliver a 25bp hike in July under the new governor, Shin Hyun Song.
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