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US forbrugsudgifter forventes at falde i andet halvår af 2026 ifølge Goldman Sachs’ cheføkonom Jan Hatzius. Væksten i forbrugerudgifter forventes at være 1%-1,5%, ned fra 1,8% i første halvår. Lukningen af Hormuzstrædet og høje energipriser kan påvirke forbrugernes udgifter yderligere. USAs real BNP estimeres at vokse med 2,1% i 2026. Inflationsdata i USA har forbedret sig betydeligt, og det forventes, at Federal Reserve ikke vil hæve renterne i 2026. Tre FOMC-medlemmer stemte imod at holde renteniveauet uændret i juli.
Investeringer i børsnoterede fonde (ETFs) i USA forventes at overstige 2 billioner dollars i år. Dette er en stigning på 40% sammenlignet med 2025, drevet af produktinnovation og skattetilpasning. Aktive forvaltede ETFs udgør en stigende del af markedet.
Europæiske aktieindstrømninger var på et femårigt højdepunkt i første halvår af 2026. Virksomheder i STOXX Europe 600 indekset oplevede en EPS-vækst på 14%. Energifirmaer i Europa nyder godt af stigende olie- og gaspriser.
Den amerikanske stat planlægger at fordoble opkøbene af statsobligationer med længere løbetid. Dette kan påvirke renterne ved at tiltrække investorer til længere løbetider.
Åbne AI-modeller kan gavne store teknologiselskaber, da de er billigere at køre og kan booste virksomheders profitabilitet. Dette kan føre til øget adoption af teknologi.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
US consumer spending growth is forecast to slow in the second half of 2026 after a surge in tax refunds likely provided a boost to the consumer in the spring, according to Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Research’s chief economist. Our economists expect real, inflation-adjusted US consumer spending to grow 1%-1.5% in the second half of 2026, down from 1.8% in the first half of the year. With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, elevated energy prices could pose an additional risk to the outlook for consumer spending. “A renewed spike in gasoline prices would further hurt consumers, especially those with lower and middle incomes,” Hatzius writes. Strong business investment and the effect of earlier large equity wealth gains should continue to support overall US GDP growth, albeit at a pace slightly below its potential, according to Hatzius. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts US real GDP to expand 2.1% in 2026.
In addition, Hatzius notes that US inflation data has “improved meaningfully” over the last two months. And with temporary drivers like tariffs, software/accessories, and energy that have kept inflation elevated set to fade, Goldman Sachs Research does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike US rates in 2026. In a sign that policy hawks have become louder, three members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dissented in the vote to hold the key policy rate steady in July. “But after two months of materially softer jobs and inflation data, it’s hard to see any of the doves shifting toward hikes,” Hatzius writes. He notes that it is now “very unlikely” that the FOMC will hike rates at its September meeting, and market pricing for the key policy rate seems “too hawkish.” Read Hatzius’ full report for his outlook on the US job market and his expectation for the European Central Bank’s policy meeting in September.
From the Trading Floor: How Will US Bond Buybacks Impact Interest Rates?
The US Treasury’s plan to double its purchases of longer-dated government bonds could prompt investors to allocate more money to longer-maturity securities. But other structural changes would probably be needed to sustainably limit the rise of Treasury bond yields, according to Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets .
The announcement is “part of a bigger story” as the Treasury takes “a much more activist approach in managing the issuance profile” of government debt, including signals that it may tilt future issuance toward shorter maturities, says Mike Mitchell, head of US Treasury and Inflation Trading, on the Breaks of the Game podcast. If the Treasury repurchases the full amount outlined, it would buy back a third of the longer-dated debt it issues, Mitchell tells Tony Pasquariello, global head of hedge fund coverage, on the podcast. It remains to be seen whether a change in the issuance mix will have a lasting impact on the trajectory of longer-maturity Treasury yields, according to Mitchell. Investors are demanding more term premium, or compensation for holding longer-dated debt, amid fiscal risks and heavy supply of longer-maturity debt from governments and companies. With the term premium around the middle of its long-term range, he expects it to drift higher. A more durable change would likely require fiscal consolidation, through some combination of reduced spending or higher taxes, or further good news on inflation, Mitchell notes. The latter could reduce market expectations of a rate hike in the medium term. Otherwise, yields on longer-maturity Treasuries may climb until they reach “a level where there’s enough of a value proposition” for investors to underwrite more longer-maturity debt. Mitchell thinks that level could be between 5.2%-6%.
Why Open-Source AI Could Be Good for Big Tech
Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani (left) with Jim Covello (right)
Rapid advances in open-source artificial intelligence (AI) models, which are cheaper to run than closed-source alternatives, have raised questions about who stands to gain and lose across the AI value chain. Jim Covello, head of Goldman Sachs Equity Research, thinks these “smaller, faster, cheaper” models could ultimately benefit the hyperscalers, the largest cloud computing providers. “Open-source models will make it more likely that enterprises can profitably implement AI in the organization,” Covello says in the latest of a series of discussions on AI from Goldman Sachs Wealth Management’s Investment Strategy Group (ISG). By demonstrating that AI can boost corporate profits, open-source models could in turn encourage more companies to adopt the technology, he tells Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, chief investment officer for Wealth Management and head of ISG. “I think it’s really good for the hyperscalers, because it’s more likely that you’re going to be able to profitably fill up all this capacity that you’re adding,” Covello says. One “technology bottleneck” is what Covello calls the “model optimization layer.” Leading AI models are already powerful and capable. What companies lack is a way to route their queries to different models so that the highest-consequence jobs go to more expensive frontier models and the lower-consequence queries are sent to open-source models. “That’s going to be one of the big keys to unlocking the economic value of AI in the enterprise,” Covello says. As hyperscalers raise significant amounts of capital to build AI infrastructure, investors are pressing harder on how and when they plan to see a return on their investments. “Until relatively recently, every time one of these companies would announce higher capital expenditures, the market would reward that company. Over the last quarter or so, you’ve really seen a significant shift where the market is questioning that a lot more,” Covello says. Watch the full video for Covello’s views on which types of companies are likely to profit from AI.
Inflows into European Stocks Hit Five-Year High as Earnings Rise
Inflows into European stocks were at their highest level in five years during the first half of 2026 as companies shook off the effects of the global energy shock and bolstered profitability at a robust pace, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Earnings-per-share (EPS) for the companies comprising the STOXX Europe 600 index increased an estimated 14% in the first two quarters, writes Sharon Bell, a senior strategist in Goldman Sachs Research. Calling the European market a “secret outperformer,” Bell upgraded her top-down forecast for full-year EPS growth to 15% from 10%.
“The prevailing narrative that Europe is struggling to generate earnings growth is increasingly at odds with the data,” Bell writes. “First half earnings-per-share growth is tracking at the strongest pace in three years, and notably comes despite a renewed energy supply shock.” The STOXX Europe 600 index has returned 54% since January 2025 compared with 34% by the S&P 500 index (as of August 13 and in US-dollar terms). Challenges remain, as double-digit Chinese export growth pressures European manufacturers and the global energy crunch stemming from the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz impacts economic performance. Yet Bell notes that many European sectors are unaffected by Chinese competition, and that rising prices for oil and natural gas have buoyed European energy companies. “The caveat here is that if higher energy prices last and start to impede demand, then the impact on companies would broaden out,” writes Bell. Read the full article or find more of our insights on markets .
Why ETFs Are Expected to Draw $2 Trillion in Investments in 2026
Investments in US-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are expected to top $2 trillion this year, a 40% jump over 2025, according to Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets. In the first half of 2026 alone, investors poured more than $1 trillion into US-listed ETFs. The surge is being largely driven by an unprecedented wave of product innovation, as well as rising liquidity and the ETF’s tax efficiency. More than 1,100 new ETFs launched last year, and that record is on track to be broken by year-end, pushing the total number of US-listed ETFs past 6,000. “We’re now seeing some of the most advanced active management strategies in the markets expressed within the ETF wrapper,” says Tom Campbell, head of Americas ETF Distribution in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets . “These range from levered funds to innovative fixed income offerings to structured derivatives.”
Actively managed ETFs now account for more than 35% of inflows despite representing only about 13% of the $16.1 trillion in US-listed ETF assets, according to our team. “Active is really driving a lot of growth in the ETF market and it’s definitely noticeable on the trading desk,” says Jackson Isaacs, head of Americas Equity ETF Trading in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets. Thematic funds are also gaining traction, while third-party model portfolio assets have surged 46% to $950 billion over the past year. The AI trade is amplifying activity further, with overall trading volumes running 50% above 2025’s record levels. In case you missed it: Read the latest Perspectives article from Goldman Sachs Asset Management analyzing how quantitative and fundamental investment approaches have performed during market shocks and explaining the potential benefits of combining the two.
Quoted: Investing in Companies That Are Being Disrupted
“Whenever you have this new technology, this innovation, there is the ‘who’s being impacted.’ And the instinct—and you’re seeing this in AI now—is to be very broad.” —Steven Tananbaum, founder and CIO of GoldenTree Asset Management A wide range of sectors, from advertising and newspapers to TV programming, were impacted by the rise of the internet, but it took years for the impact to filter through these industries, Tananbaum says in a conversation with John Waldron, president and COO of Goldman Sachs. Tananbaum points out that these companies can be an opportunity for credit investors even as their disruption plays out. Listen to the full episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Great Investors for more on how Tananbaum approaches investing, how financing for AI is affecting credit markets, and the opportunities he sees in Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS), software, and cable companies.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
