Resume af teksten:
Til trods for spændingerne mellem Iran og USA samt de efterfølgende olie- og gaschok, mener ING’s FX team, at euroen stadig kan nå 1,20 mod dollaren. Francesco Pesole forklarer, at de forventer, at den amerikanske centralbank vil se igennem den inflationære periode, der er forårsaget af stigende olie- og gaspriser, og at de vil sænke renten to gange mere i år. Dette kan have en positiv effekt på EUR/USD. Selvom oliepriserne forventes at forblive høje, ser teamet ikke samme risiko for gaspriserne i Europa. Kortvarsigt er der mulighed for en lavere euro, men den forventes at komme sig stærkt.
Fra ING:
One of the biggest questions we get from clients is how we can be so constructive about the euro, despite what’s going on with Iran, the US, and the subsequent oil and gas shocks. ING’s Francesco Pesole explains our FX team’s thinking.
Read more in our latest FX Talking here
Why we still think EUR/USD can reach 1.20
We still think, despite everything, that the euro can rise to 1.20 against the dollar this year. Our FX Strategist, Francesco Pesole, says our team believes the Fed will look through this inflationary ‘bump’ driven by rising oil and gas prices and will cut rates twice again this year. And that will have an amplified effect on EUR/USD for several reasons. And while oil prices are set to remain elevated, we don’t see the same risks for gas in Europe. So, the euro may trade lower in the short term, but should recover fairly strongly.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
