Den toneangivende amerikanske erhvervstillids fra de amerikanske indkøbschefer i ISM indikerer i dagens melding for marts at USA’s økonomi er på vej mod stagnation. Både selve det overordnede produktionsindeks og delindeks for nye ordrer nærmer sig neutrale 50. Delindeks for beskæftigelsen er allerede på neutrale 50. Læs her:
March 2015 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of March 2015.
PMI® at 51.5%
New Orders, Production and Inventories Growing
Employment Unchanged
Supplier Deliveries Slowing
(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March for the 27th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 70th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The March PMI® registered 51.5 percent, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from February’s reading of 52.9 percent. The New Orders Index registered 51.8 percent, a decrease of 0.7 percentage point from the reading of 52.5 percent in February. The Production Index registered 53.8 percent, 0.1 percentage point above the February reading of 53.7 percent. The Employment Index registered 50 percent, 1.4 percentage points below the February reading of 51.4 percent, reflecting unchanged employment levels from February. Inventories of raw materials registered 51.5 percent, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the February reading of 52.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 39 percent, 4 percentage points above the February reading of 35 percent, indicating lower raw materials prices for the fifth consecutive month. Comments from the panel refer to continuing challenges from the West Coast port issue, lower oil prices having both positive and negative impacts depending upon the industry, residual effects of the harsh winter, higher costs of healthcare premiums, and challenges associated with the stronger dollar on international business.”
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 10 are reporting growth in March in the following order: Paper Products; Wood Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The seven industries reporting contraction in March — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Furniture & Related Products.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
- “Falling energies have helped on the cost side while sales are getting a boost through improvements in consumer disposable income.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- “Our business is still strong and on projection. Dollar strength is challenging for our international business.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
- “Business is still extremely strong.” (Transportation Equipment)
- “Oil prices impacting drilling and project activity. Pursuing cost reductions from suppliers for a wide variety of goods and services.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)
- “Business really starting to slow down. Oil pricing is having a major effect on energy markets.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
- “Steady Q1 demand but somewhat interrupted by weather.” (Primary Metals)
- “Operating costs are higher due to increases in healthcare premiums.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
- “March business is improving over Jan-Feb, thawing out of this crazy winter.” (Paper Products)
- “Dealing with ongoing delivery issues associated with congestion at the U.S. West Coast and Vancouver ports.” (Machinery)
- “Congestion at the West Coast ports delaying incoming products.” (Textile Mills)
| MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE MARCH 2015 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | Series Index Mar | Series Index Feb | Percentage Point Change | Direction | Rate of Change | Trend* (Months) |
| PMI® | 51.5 | 52.9 | -1.4 | Growing | Slower | 27 |
| New Orders | 51.8 | 52.5 | -0.7 | Growing | Slower | 28 |
| Production | 53.8 | 53.7 | +0.1 | Growing | Faster | 31 |
| Employment | 50.0 | 51.4 | -1.4 | Unchanged | From Growing | 1 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 50.5 | 54.3 | -3.8 | Slowing | Slower | 22 |
| Inventories | 51.5 | 52.5 | -1.0 | Growing | Slower | 3 |
| Customers’ Inventories | 45.5 | 46.5 | -1.0 | Too Low | Faster | 4 |
| Prices | 39.0 | 35.0 | +4.0 | Decreasing | Slower | 5 |
| Backlog of Orders | 49.5 | 51.5 | -2.0 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 |
| Exports | 47.5 | 48.5 | -1.0 | Contracting | Faster | 3 |
| Imports | 52.5 | 54.0 | -1.5 | Growing | Slower | 26 |
| OVERALL ECONOMY | Growing | Slower | 70 | |||
| Manufacturing Sector | Growing | Slower | 27 | |||
Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Dairy; Gasoline; Polypropylene Resin; and Steel — Hot Rolled*.
Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum (4); Carbon Steel (3); Copper (8); HDPE Resin (4); Nickel (3); Oil (4); PET Resin (5); Plastic Resin (4); Scrap Steel (4); Stainless Steel (5); Steel (4); Steel — Cold Rolled; and Steel — Hot Rolled (5)*.
Commodities in Short Supply
The only commodity listed in short supply during March is Trucking Services.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Reported as both up and down in price.
MARCH 2015 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
PMI®
Manufacturing expanded in March as the PMI® registered 51.5 percent, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points when compared to February’s reading of 52.9 percent, indicating growth in manufacturing for the 27th consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A PMI® in excess of 43.1 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the March PMI® indicates growth for the 70th consecutive month in the overall economy, and indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 27th consecutive month. Holcomb stated, “The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI® for January through March (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 3 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis. In addition, if the PMI® for March (51.5 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 2.6 percent increase in real GDP annually.”
THE LAST 12 MONTHS
| Month | PMI® | Month | PMI® | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2015 | 51.5 | Sep 2014 | 56.1 | |
| Feb 2015 | 52.9 | Aug 2014 | 58.1 | |
| Jan 2015 | 53.5 | Jul 2014 | 56.4 | |
| Dec 2014 | 55.1 | Jun 2014 | 55.7 | |
| Nov 2014 | 57.6 | May 2014 | 55.6 | |
| Oct 2014 | 57.9 | Apr 2014 | 55.3 | |
| Average for 12 months – 55.5 High – 58.1 Low – 51.5 | ||||
New Orders
ISM®’s New Orders Index registered 51.8 percent in March, a decrease of 0.7 percentage point when compared to the February reading of 52.5 percent, indicating growth in new orders for the 28th consecutive month. A New Orders Index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
The nine industries reporting growth in new orders in March — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The eight industries reporting a decrease in new orders during March — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; and Plastics & Rubber Products.
| New Orders | % Better | % Same | % Worse | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2015 | 27 | 58 | 15 | +12 | 51.8 |
| Feb 2015 | 28 | 55 | 17 | +11 | 52.5 |
| Jan 2015 | 24 | 59 | 17 | +7 | 52.9 |
| Dec 2014 | 25 | 57 | 18 | +7 | 57.8 |
Production
ISM®’s Production Index registered 53.8 percent in March, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage point when compared to the 53.7 percent reported in February, indicating growth in production for the 31st consecutive month. An index above 51.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.
The nine industries reporting growth in production during the month of March — listed in order — are: Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products. The five industries reporting a decrease in production during March are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.
| Production | % Better | % Same | % Worse | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2015 | 25 | 64 | 11 | +14 | 53.8 |
| Feb 2015 | 27 | 57 | 16 | +11 | 53.7 |
| Jan 2015 | 24 | 61 | 15 | +9 | 56.5 |
| Dec 2014 | 24 | 59 | 17 | +7 | 57.7 |
Employment
ISM®’s Employment Index registered 50 percent in March, which is a decrease of 1.4 percentage points when compared to the 51.4 percent reported in February. The March reading of 50 percent indicates that there was no change in manufacturing employment relative to February, and follows 21 consecutive months of growth in employment. An Employment Index above 50.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, in March, seven industries reported employment growth in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The seven industries reporting a decrease in employment in March — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
| Employment | % Higher | % Same | % Lower | Net | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2015 | 17 | 68 | 15 | +2 | 50.0 |
| Feb 2015 | 18 | 68 | 14 | +4 | 51.4 |
| Jan 2015 | 15 | 75 | 10 | +5 | 54.1 |
| Dec 2014 | 19 | 70 | 11 | +8 | 56.0 |
