Analyse: Er der strukturelle vækstproblemer i EU?

Analyse fra Natixis.

The environment (fall in the oil price, depreciation of the euro, very low interest rates, postponement of fiscal adjustment) is obviously conducive to a growth recovery in the euro zone. However, are there obstacles to a euro-zone growth recovery? Some of them are probably not a real problem: – High level of debt ratios (public and private)? But this is not a drawback as long as interest rates are very low; – Reduction in banks’ lending capacity due to new regulations; but this would be felt only after several years of pickup in investment and credit; – Destruction of manufacturing production capacity: this could attenuate the near-term reaction to the currency’s depreciation, but it could increase the need for investment; – The profitability and competitiveness of companies in the euro zone have been greatly improved by wage moderation, the fall in the oil price, the depreciation of the euro and the fall in interest rates. The only possible remaining obstacle to a growth recovery in the euro zone is therefore the existence of supply-side problems other than profitability and competitiveness: labour market rules, standards, insufficient labourforce skills, insufficient investment in innovation, etc. Are these supply-side problems sufficient to prevent a growth recovery in the euro zone? For the time being, they seem sufficient to prevent a recovery in investment.