China just announced total carnage in its trade data for March:
- CHINA’S MARCH IMPORTS FALL 12.3% Y/Y IN YUAN TERMS; EST. -11.3%
- CHINA’S MARCH EXPORTS FALL 14.6% Y/Y IN YUAN TERMS; EST. +8.2%
- CHINA’S MARCH TRADE SURPLUS 18.16 BILLION YUAN; EST 250B YUAN
So what exactly was the Chinese stock market ‘discounting’?
Trade Surplus collapses… (economists knew about year-end and forecast +250bn!!!)
As Exports crash and Imports continues to slide for the 5th month…
In US Dollars the picture is worse…
- *CHINA’S MARCH EXPORTS FALL 15.0% FROM YEAR EARLIER
- *CHINA’S MARCH IMPORTS FALL 12.7% FROM YEAR EARLIER
- *CHINA’S MARCH TRADE SURPLUS $3.08 BILLION
While year-end shenanigans will likely be blamed (and sure enough…)
- *CHINA 1Q TRADE VOLATILITY MAINLY DUE TO SPRING FESTIVAL: HUANG
- *UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN CHINA’S 2Q EXPORTS MOMENTUM: HUANG
Which is odd that all the data massively missed expectations which we assume Economists were aware of the calendar?
We suspect – given the weakness in other recent data – that this clarifies the fact that Beijing will have to devalue and fast.
Which means Moar QE… Which means stocks limit up?
