I lang tid har udenlandske investorer ikke være netto-opkøbere af amerikanske statsobligationer, T-bonds. Det vil på sigt føre til en svagere dollar, vurderer Nordea.
Uddrag fra Nordea:
Foreigners haven’t been material net buyers of US Treasuries in a long while, why primary dealers have been building up inventories. Eventually, the USD needs to weaken, and the USD curve re-steepen relatively or else the Fed will have to buy more.
A repo-market implosion later and the Fed ended up expanding the balance sheet at almost record pace in Q4-2019. POMO, TOMO and friends have all been at hard work in response to the tightening of USD liquidity into Q3-2019. While the launch of T-bill purchases and repo-operations were initially seen as temporary in response to too tight USD liquidity in USD funding markets, they may prove to be everlasting. Here is why.
Chart 1: Almost post 2009 record QoQ pace in the Fed balance sheet expansion in Q4-2019
Foreigners almost haven’t bought treasuries on a net-basis since late 2015. Q3 2019 marked a return of net foreign buying of Treasuries – likely as the trade-war led to haven demands. No matter the horizontal return seen in other currencies than USD. With an increasing budget deficit, a strong USD spot level and a flat USD curve in relative terms, it could become troublesome if foreigners are not incentivized to buy US Treasuries during 2020.
