Fra Guardian
Change of plan. The Eurogroup teleconference will now start six hours later than originally proposed, now at 15.30 GMT. The Eurogroup spokesman has tweeted:
At the request of several ministers today's #eurogroup teleconference will start at 5.30pm #Greece
— Michel Reijns (@MichelReijns) July 1, 2015
Here’s an updated version of Greece’s debt deadlines:
As expected, European markets have opened higher:
- 01-Jul-2015 08:00:34 – EUROPE’S FTSEUROFIRST 300 RISES 0.5 PCT TO 1,517.50 POINTS IN EARLY TRADING
- 01-Jul-2015 08:01:04 – BRITAIN’S FTSE 100 UP 0.8 PCT, FRANCE’S CAC 40 UP 0.9 PCT
- 01-Jul-2015 08:01:15 – SPAIN’S IBEX UP 0.8 PCT
- 01-Jul-2015 08:03:17 – GERMANY’S DAX UP 1.0 PCT
- 01-Jul-2015 08:06:38 – EURO STOXX 50 UP 0.8 PCT
Greek banks open to allow pensioners to cash retirement cheques
Speaking of Greece’s banks, around 1000 of them have reopened to allow pensioners without ATM cards to cash up to €120 from their retirement cheques. They are being given numbered tickets in an attempt to make the process easier.
And here is what people have been more used to seeing since Monday’s closures and capital controls:
Greece’s referendum on Sunday to vote on whether to accept or reject the creditors’ bailout terms (even though they are not now on the table after yesterday) is getting closer, according to the latest poll. Reuters reports:
A majority of Greeks would vote No to the terms of a proposed bailout deal by foreign lenders but the lead narrowed significantly after banks were closed this week, according to an opinion poll published on Wednesday.
The poll, by the ProRata institute published in the Efimerida ton Syntatkton newspaper, showed 54% of those planning to vote would oppose the bailout against 33% in favour.
However a breakdown of results between those polled before and after Sunday’s decision to close the banks and impose capital controls showed the gap narrowing.
Of those polled before the announcement of the bank closures, 57% said they would vote No against 30% for who would vote Yes. However of those polled after, the No’s were at only 46% against 37% Yes.
Latest manufacturing data due from Europe and US
It being the first day of the month, it is the usual round of manufacturing PMI data from around the world. China has already reported sluggish factory activity and in Europe, Italy and Spain are expected to remain strong, with France and Germany a little softer.
In the UK, the PMI survey is expected to show a pickup in June to 52.6 from 52 the previous month, and in the US, the ISM manufacturing survey is forecast to improve from 52.8 to 53.2.
Asian markets have edged higher awaiting the next developments now Greece’s bailout has run out:
And here are IG’s opening calls for European markets, showing an early rebound is expected after yesterday’s late declines:
Introduction: Greek creditors to discuss third bailout proposal
It’s the morning after the historic night before, and Greece and its creditors are considering their next steps after the country failed to make a €1.5bn payment due to the International Monetary Fund, pushing it closer to default, and its bailout ran out without agreement.
The Eurogroup is holding at teleconference at 10.30am BST to discuss Greece’s request for a third bailout, after the country asked for a new two year programme under the European Stability Mechanism (Europe’s bailout fund).
But eurozone finance ministers have already warned such a path would be difficult, and France’s finance minister Michel Sapin said it would be “incredibily complicated”, especially with the looming Greek referendum on Sunday.
- 01-Jul-2015 06:50:24 – FRANCE’S FINMIN SAYS GOAL FOR FRANCE IS TO FIND A DEAL BEFORE THE REFERENDUM IN GREECE
- 01-Jul-2015 06:51:31 – FRENCH FINMIN SAYS OBVIOUSLY INCREDIBLY COMPLICATED TO GET DEAL WITH GREECE
- 01-Jul-2015 06:52:04 – FRENCH FINMIN SAYS TOUGHEST LINE IS AMONG SMALL EU COUNTRIES
- 01-Jul-2015 06:55:37 – FRENCH FINMIN MICHEL SAPIN SAYS NO VOTE BRINGS RISK OF MOVE TOWARDS GREEK EXIT OF EURO ZONE
Meanwhile the European Central Bank is meeting – believed to be around 11.00 BST – to discuss whether to continue providing emergency support to Greek banks. The fact that a third bailout is being discussed might give the ECB the necessary cover to continue support albeit with perhaps tougher terms on collateral. Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said:
The European Central Bank will meet to assess the latest ELA arrangements which could well be tightened in light of yesterday’s non-payment to the IMF. While it is not expected that the ECB will end the program, they could well raise the collateral haircuts, in exchange for emergency funding.
There is a risk that this might place more strain on the weaker members of the Greek banking system and tip some of the weaker banks over the edge, leaving the ECB open to the accusation of further asphyxiating liquidity as well as political interference, which leaves it in a tricky position, and suggests that they will probably err on the side of caution and do nothing.
As guardian of financial stability the sensible option would be to do nothing, despite further ratings agency downgrades for Greece last night, this time from Fitch to one rank above default.
For those wanting to catch up with yesterday’s events, here is our report:
And here is the story from my colleague Alberto Nardelli on secret documents showing the full extent of Greece’s debt problems:
Greece would face an unsustainable level of debt by 2030 even if it signs up to the full package of tax and spending reforms demanded of it, according to unpublished documents compiled by its three main creditors.
