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It is often thought that since the 2008-2009 crisis, the world has been in a situation of cyclical recovery. This is not true: global growth is at present lower than global potential growth, which means that on the contrary the world is in a cyclical slowdown. We seek to determine the following: – Why is the world in a cyclical slowdown?
From which regions is it coming? From Japan, oil-exporting countries and emerging countries excluding China; – What are the consequences of this situation of cyclical slowdown? Do we see the expected consequences for inflation, commodity prices and interest rates? The answer is yes. To establish forecasts of inflation and interest rates, allowance must be made for this situation of a global cyclical slowdown (increase in the level of under-utilisation of capacity)
. Flash 2015 – 545 – 2 FLASH Global potential growth and actual growth Chart 1 makes it possible to compare global potential growth and actual growth. It is usually thought that the world has been in a situation of cyclical recovery since the 2008-2009 crisis.
Chart 1 above shows that this is by no means the case: since mid-2011, global growth has been lower than global potential growth, which means that the degree of global under-utilisation of capacity has increased. So the world is now in fact in a situation of cyclical slowdown. What is the source of the global cyclical slowdown, and what are its causes? Let us now compare growth and potential growth in the major countries or regions.
Charts 2A, B, C, D, E, F and G show that in the recent period, a major shortfall in growth relative to potential growth has appeared in Japan (Chart 2D), oilexporting countries (Chart 2F), and emerging countries excluding China (Chart 2G). Conversely, growth has been higher than potential growth in the United States (Chart 2A), the euro zone (Chart 2B), the United Kingdom (Chart 2C) and China (Chart 2E).
