Fra BNP Paribas
Greece – we wait for the week after The Greece story takes a breather as the markets wait for an agreement between Greece and its creditors before the proposal is put forward to the Eurogroup. Greece still needs to pass the Pension Reform Bill which is one of four key requirements of its creditors. On the flip side, there has been no progress on the debt relief that the Greek government as well as the IMF want but which the German-led European side is unwilling to concede to as yet, given the political consequences.
As such, we predict some Greek related vol, although contained, for the week after next but next week could be relatively quiet. A bridge loan facility, similar to what was offered the last time during the Greek referendum, is expected to be the backstop if an agreement can be reached on time for disbursing the 20 August ECB payment, which is the nearest hard deadline, but which is no longer as hard as before!
The August calendar shown below in Table 2 for guidance. Table 2: Key dates in the Greek calendar for August
August
EUR 0.2bn interest/charges payment to the IMF
7 August EUR 1.0bn T-bill redemption
11 August Preliminary date for the eurozone finance ministers to sign off the third bailout package for Greece
13 August National parliaments expected to approve the third bailout package for Greece by this date 14 August EUR 1.4bn T-bill redemption
17 August The first tranche of the third bailout package expected to be disbursed
20 August EUR 3.2bn government bond redemption held by the ECB Source: BNP Paribas, Bloomberg, Reuters
