Saxo Bank venter, at de amerikanske renter til stige kraftigt. Banken venter, at de 10 årige T-bonds, der er knyttet til inflationen, vil stige til 0,5 pct., mens de ti-årige nominale T-bonds vil stige til 2 pct. – i begge tilfælde betydeligt over det nuværende niveau. Rentestigningerne vil komme hurtigt som følge af den stigende inflation og en mere aggressiv pengeplitik, siger Althea Spinozzi fra Saxo Bank til Dow Jones.
Uddrag fra Fidelity/Dow Jones:
Bonds:
The time looks ripe to turn cautious on bonds as the market is signalling a swift rise in interest rates amid strong inflationary pressures and more aggressive monetary policies, said Althea Spinozzi, fixed income strategist at Saxo Bank.
“As the Federal Reserve prepares to hike interest rates, we expect breakeven rates to drop and real yields to accelerate their rise, posing a threat to risky assets,” she said.
Saxo Bank doesn’t rule out 10-year U.S. inflation-linked Treasury yields rising to 0.5% and 10-year nominal Treasury yields rising to 2% by the end of the year. The current levels are around -1.00% and 1.642%, respectively, according to Tradeweb.
Better U.K. economic news underpins prospects for interest-rate rises, JPMorgan said after meeting with the country’s biggest banks this week. Based on data visible to U.K. banks, U.K. employment and spending trends continue to improve, supporting the outlook for rate hikes, the U.S. investment bank said.
Still, while continuing productivity and restructuring actions are partly mitigating wage-inflation pressure in specific roles, higher costs look set to partially offset higher net-interest income from rates in 2022, JPM said.
“Capital return will be the focus for the FY updates, with the stress-test results on Dec. 13–a key milestone. We retain our positive view on the sector, with Barclays our top pick,” JPM analyst Raul Sinha says.
