Meget tyder på, at den globale økonomi nu bremser yderligere op. Mens kinesisk økonomi fortsat ligger underdrejet, med et træk ned på de fleste råvarepriser, viser europæisk økonomi fortsat styrke men på et afdæmpet leje.
Til gengæld viser USA’s økonomi nu betydelig svaghed, hvis de ledende indikatorer bliver retningsgivende for den økonomiske udvikling. Seneste data fra de amerikanske indkøbschefer i ISM indikerer nu minusvækst i fremstillingsindustrien, hvis der ses på den fremadrettede indikator for ordreindgangen. Også væksten i amerikansk serviceindustri bremser op, men der er fortsat god momentum, viser tallene fra ISM.
Conference Boards måling af den amerikanske forbrugertillid har også på det seneste vist svaghed: ”Consumer confidence retreated in November, following a moderate decrease in October. The decline was mainly due to a less favorable view of the job market. Consumers’ appraisal of current business conditions, on the other hand, was mixed. Fewer consumers said conditions had improved, while the proportion saying conditions had deteriorated also declined. Heading into 2016, consumers are cautious about the labor market and expect little change in business conditions,” oplyser Conference Board.
Mens USA nu ser ud til at bremse op, siver kinesisk økonomi videre. Positivt er det dog, at opbremsningshastigheden er stabiliseret, viser seneste data for PMI fra Markit. ”The higher PMI reading was partly driven by a stabilisation of output volumes in November. This contrasted with reduced production in each of the prior six months. However, lower volumes of overall new work placed at Chinese manufacturers continued to weigh on the PMI figure. The rate at which new orders declined was similar to that seen in October and moderate overall. Data indicated that weaker domestic demand had acted as a drag on new order books, as new export business expanded in November and at the quickest rate in 13 months.”
Til gengæld viser PMI-indikatoren for europæisk økonomi fortsat stabilisering med et lille plus. BNP væksten ventes dog ikke at komme meget over én procent i år, hvor det samme er tilfældet for dansk økonomi. Under alle omstændigheder har den styrende tyske økonomi vist overraskende robusthed, trods markant samhandel med Kina. For europæisk økonomi har det uden tvivl givet medvind med de lave oliepriser og den svækkende Euro/USD. Efter ECB’s rentemelding i denne uge tyder meget på, at Euroen nu har nået et foreløbigt lavpunkt, og en fortsat styrkelse af euroen vil svække europæiske virksomheders konkurrenceevne – og tage en del af luften ud af den aktuelle fremgang. Fra IFO, baseret på input fra de tyske indkøbschefer, lyder meldingen, at ”assessments of the current business situation improved. Optimism with a view to future business developments also continued to increase for the third consecutive month. The German economy remains unaffected by growing uncertainty worldwide. Not even the Paris attacks had a negative impact on survey data. In manufacturing the business climate index rose after a three-month decline. Manufacturers were more satisfied with their current business situation than last month. Optimism about the short-term future also reached its highest level since March. Production will be ramped up in the months ahead. The sub-index for the automotive sector continued to rise despite the emissions scandal.”
