Ikke-uafhængig analyse: Netcompany – Positive trend looks set to continue

We expect Netcompany to deliver according to its 2022 guidance, resulting in a solid Q4 that includes 28% y/y revenue growth and a 23.1% EBITDA margin (up 3.1 pp y/y). Focus in the report will likely be on 2023 guidance, churn and FTE growth. The latter is typically a strong indicator for how management regards its growth potential/pipeline quality. We and consensus forecast 10% revenue growth in 2023, which might prove too cautious, but this is sensitive to the macroeconomic development. Management might also start off the year with a more careful approach by underpromising and overdelivering. We maintain our estimates ahead of the Q4 2022 report, and our updated combined DCF- and multiple-based fair value is unchanged at DKK 445-520.

Q4 2022E: 23% revenue growth for Core

Estimating (organic) revenue growth for Q4 is made difficult as Intrasoft was included for two months in Q4 2021, which means only Intrasoft’s December revenue will be labelled as inorganic in Q4 2022. We forecast reported Q4 y/y revenue growth of 28% (company-compiled consensus: 26.8%), an organic growth rate of ~16.6%, and 15.7% growth based on pro forma Q4 2021 revenue (DKK 1,276m). We estimate a 23.1% Q4 EBITDA margin (up 3.1 pp y/y and 0.2 pp q/q). We expect that churn rates have continued decreasing, while the level of sick leave remains a question mark, although we do not expect it to be much different than a typical Q4.