Global økonomi er stille og roligt ved at gå i stå

Den globale økonomi er nu stille og roligt ved at gå i stå.

Et af de tydeligste markedssignaler på denne udvikling er de seneste to-tre ugers dramatiske fald i de vesteuropæiske tiårige statsrenter, eksempelvis den tyske og danske tiårige obligationsrente. Der er nu ikke langt til negative obligationsrenter.

Økonomer peger på tre forhold bag denne udvikling: For det første et meget svagt globalt forbrug sammen med svage erhvervsinvesteringer. For det andet fortsatte obligationsopkøb af blandt andet den europæiske centralbank. Og for det tredje udsigten til recession i USA og senere i Europa, samt fortsat afmatning i Kina.

Markits seneste PMI-opdatering for den globale fremstillingsindustri understøtter dette billede. I meddelelsen skriver Markit, at “the global economy has therefore maintained its generally subdued start to the year, with rates of growth in all-industry output and new orders so far during 2016 among the weakest seen for three years.”

Videre hedder det, at “manufacturing production broadly stagnated in May, while service sector activity rose at the slowest rate in three months. In both cases, output indices posted below their respective long-run survey averages. National PMI data indicated that apart from a few pockets of solid expansion (such as in Germany, Spain and Ireland) most of the world’s major economies saw only modest growth at best during May.”

Mens der fortsat er stor usikkerhed om, hvor USA’s økonomi bevæger sig hen, er der klare tegn på, at både Europa og USA nu bremser op. De amerikanske ISM-data indikerer fortsat solid vækst i fremstillingsindustrien, mens Markits tal

viser den svageste udvikling i seks år: ”At 50.7 in May, the seasonally adjusted Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) was down fractionally from 50.8 in April and pointed to the weakest manufacturing performance since September 2009. Anecdotal evidence suggested that softer new order growth and efforts to rein in inventory accumulation had exerted negative influences on production schedules. The latest survey highlighted only a modest increase in new business intakes, with the pace of expansion easing to a five-month low.”

Det tyske IFO-indeks viser en lidt bedre udvikling i maj: ”In manufacturing the business climate has improved for the third consecutive time. The companies assessed their situation somewhat more favourably. Their expectations brightened noticeably, and production plans remain expansionary. A significant contribution to this improvement came from capital goods manufacturers.” Stigende oliepriser og en styrket euro kan meget let tage pusten ud af det svage økonomiske opsving i Europa, hvortil kommer usikkerhed om udfaldet af det kommende Brixit-valg i UK den 23. juni. For Kina viser PMI-tallene fortsat svækkelse.

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Morten W. Langer