“China’s economy is projected by Goldman Sachs Research to grow at a slower pace in 2025, as the government’s stimulus efforts partially offset the impact of potential tariffs from the US. Real GDP growth is predicted to decelerate to 4.5% next year from 4.9% in 2024. Goldman Sachs Research’s forecast assumes a 20 percentage-point increase in the effective tariff rate imposed by the incoming Trump administration on Chinese goods, which would weigh on China’s real GDP by 0.7 percentage point in 2025. The forecast also assumes that Chinese policymakers will introduce fresh stimulus to blunt the impact of tariffs. “The choice in front of Chinese policymakers is simple: either to provide a large dose of policy offset or to accept a notably lower headline real GDP growth,” Chief China Economist Hui Shan writes in the team’s report. “We expect them to choose the former.”
Morten W. Langer
