Uddrag fra Zerohedge:
Amid the fog of war and fading ‘hard’ data, the final April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI printed 54.5, a small gain from the flash 54.0 print, and higher than the 52.3 February final print, although it came with a warning from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:
“The surge in manufacturing activity in April is not the cause for cheer that at first glance it suggests. A key driving force behind the upturn is the need for companies to get ahead of further feared price rises and supply shortages, providing a short-term boost that could fade in the coming months as headwinds to the economy continue to build… employment has fallen as firms grow increasingly worried over the need to reduce cost overheads amid an environment of rising raw material prices, while selling prices have jumped higher as producers seek to protect their margins.
There was some good news: “More encouragingly, business expectations for output in the year ahead have improved, partly reflecting hopes that the US will be less affected by the war than previously feared, and less than other economies, as well as reduced concerns over the impact of tariffs given the recent Supreme Court ruling. However, some of these improved expectations of future production gains reflected a reaction to better than anticipated order book inflows in April, which may prove to be a chimera as the stock building boost fades.”
Shortly after, the ISM Manufacturing PMI published its April number which remained unchanged at 52.7, matching the highest since August 2022, and missing estimates of an increase to 53.2
However, a look under the hood reveals that like last month, there was continued deterioration in the core components: Under the hood, Prices Paid continued to rise dramatically while New Orders and Employment dipped again – another indication that stagflation remains the biggest risk for the economy.
- New Orders 54.1, missing expectations of 54.5
- Prices Paid 84.6, higher than expectations of 80.3
- Employment 46.4, missing expectations of48.8
As shown below, the New Orders Index expanded for the fourth straight month after four straight readings in contraction, registering 54.1 percent, up 0.6 percentage point compared to March’s figure of 53.5 percent. The April reading of the Production Index (53.4 percent) is 1.7 percentage points lower than March’s reading of 55.1 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 84.6 percent, a 6.3-percentage point jump from March’s reading of 78.3 percent. In the last three months, the Prices Index has increased 25.6 percentage points to reach its highest level since April 2022 (84.6 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 51.4 percent, down 3 percentage points compared to the 54.4 percent recorded in March. The Employment Index registered 46.4 percent, down 2.3 percentage points from March’s figure of 48.7 percent.
Some more details:
“In April, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, growing at the same pace as the month before. Of the five subindexes that make up the PMI®, the New Orders and Supplier Deliveries indexes indicated faster growth compared to the previous month, the Production Index grew at a slower rate, and the Employment and Inventories indexes remained in contraction.
“Two of four demand indicators (the New Orders and Backlog of Orders indexes) remain in expansion, although the Backlog of Orders Index dropped 3 percentage points compared to March. The New Export Orders Index remained in contraction with a 2-percentage point decrease, and the Customers’ Inventories Index remains in ‘too low’ territory, contracting at a slightly faster rate. A ‘too low’ status for the Customers’ Inventories Index is usually considered positive for future production.
“Regarding output, the Production Index is in expansion for the sixth month in a row (although it lost ground compared to March), and the Employment Index decreased by 2.3 percentage points and remains in contraction. Among panelists, 60 percent indicated that managing head counts remains the norm at their companies as opposed to hiring, and of those managing head counts, 34 percent are using layoffs and 43 percent using attrition or not backfilling positions.
“Finally, inputs (defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices, and imports) had another month of mixed results. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated increasingly slowing deliveries, the Inventories Index contracted at a slower rate, and the Prices Index vaulted again — up another 6.3 percentage points to 84.6 percent, from 78.3 percent in March, and the highest reading from April 2022, when it was also at 84.6 percent. The Imports Index lost 2.3 percentage points for a reading of 50.3 percent, compared to 52.6 percent in March.
“Looking at the manufacturing economy, 19 percent of the sector’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in April, compared to 16 percent in March, and the percentage of manufacturing GDP in strong contraction (defined as a composite PMI® of 45 percent or lower) decreased to 2 percent, compared to 4 percent in March. The share of sector GDP with a PMI® at or below 45 percent is a good metric to gauge overall manufacturing weakness. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, four (Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products) expanded in April,” says Spence.
According to the report, “In April, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, growing at the same pace as the month before. Of the five subindexes that make up the PMI, the New Orders and Supplier Deliveries indexes indicated faster growth compared to the previous month, the Production Index grew at a slower rate, and the Employment and Inventories indexes remained in contraction.”
Yet for all the rhetoric, what matters is that prices continued to rise, surging to 84.6, the highest since April 2022 and approaching their 2021 record high, while employment shrank further into contraction, down to 46.4, the lowest print of 2026.
Furthermore, as expected the Iran war remains: “In this second month of the Iran War (at the time of data collection), 31 percent of the comments were positive and 69 percent negative, with a positive to negative sentiment ratio of 1 to 2.2. Among comments, the war was mentioned in 47 percent and tariffs in 18 percent. As was the case last month, some panelists referenced both topics within a single comment or in mixed sentiment.”
Obviously, if the war persists and price pressures and supply delays accelerate, demand, employment and production capabilities will inevitably start to be even more adversely affected until the broader economy finally cracks.
