Resume af teksten:
Europa har skiftet fokus fra brændstofmangel til ekstrem varme. Den økonomiske stemning blandt virksomheder og forbrugere forbedres forsigtigt. Økonomisk indikator steg fra 93,7 til 95, med de fleste data indsamlet før USA-Iran-aftalen. Hvis aftalen holder, forventes yderligere forbedringer. Juni-resultater viser skuffende output i både industri og service. Eurozonen risikerer et dårligt kvartal og stagnation. Arbejdsmarkedets udsigter svækkes, hvilket kan påvirke servicesektoren. Forventninger til salgspriser i industrien og servicesektoren faldt i juni, hvilket indikerer faldende pres på kerneinflationen. Oliepriserne er faldet, og økonomien er langsom, hvilket påvirker ECB’s beslutning om rentestigninger. Aftalens stabilitet vil afgøre inflationens fremtidige pres. Juli kan være en passende tid for ECB at afvente.
Fra ING:
Europe’s worries have promptly shifted from fuel shortages to blistering heat . While also not great for the economy, it is surely preferable to another energy shock. And sentiment among businesses and consumers is cautiously improving. The increase in the Economic Sentiment Indicator from 93.7 to 95 marks the second cautious increase in a row, with most of the sampling done before the US-Iran deal was reached. If the deal holds, we can expect further improvements.
When looking at the survey results for output in June, it disappoints for both industry and services. The eurozone is clearly rounding out a poor quarter with stagnation a real possibility. But expectations for the months ahead are on the rise. Concerningly, though, the employment outlook is weakening, which could prove to be a continued drag on the service sector.
Most crucially in this time of revived inflation worries, expectations for selling prices of both industry and services fell fast in June. This indicates that pressures on core inflation were already easing ahead of the deal and the subsequent sharp decline in oil prices.
For the ECB, the question is how much faith it has in the fragile US-Iran deal. Because at face value, the time to hike already seems to have passed. Oil prices have rapidly come down, the economy remains slow and while businesses are still going to pass through higher costs to consumers, the pace with which they plan to do so already seems to be fading.
But if the deal doesn’t hold and problems resurface, inflationary pressures could swiftly return. Some more time to see how this plays out before the next move on rates is therefore not a bad thing. July may be a great time to pause for the ECB, like it is for the rest of Europe.
Kilde: ING, https://think.ing.com/articles/eurozone-sentiment-indicator-reveals-easing-inflationary-pressures-in-june/
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