resume af analytiker vurderinger efter IBMs nedjustering::
IBM’s nedjustering og signalerne til resten af teknologisektoren
IBM har overrasket markedet med en markant negativ forhåndsmeddelelse om resultaterne for andet kvartal. Omsætningen ventes at lande på 17,2 mia. dollar mod analytikernes forventning på omkring 17,8-17,9 mia. dollar, mens den justerede indtjening pr. aktie ventes at blive 2,93 dollar mod cirka 3,02 dollar ventet. Skuffelsen udløste et meget kraftigt kursfald og blev af investorerne opfattet som en mulig advarsel om, at virksomhedernes investeringer i kunstig intelligens er begyndt at fortrænge udgifter til traditionel software, mainframes og it-serviceydelser.
Den primære begrundelse: Kunderne flyttede investeringsbudgetterne
IBM peger først og fremmest på en uventet omlægning af kundernes kapitaludgifter. I de sidste uger af juni valgte en række kunder at bruge en større del af deres kvartalsbudgetter på servere, lagerkapacitet og hukommelseschips.
Baggrunden var, at disse produkter var præget af begrænset udbud og udsigt til prisstigninger. Kunderne forsøgte derfor at sikre sig den nødvendige infrastruktur, før priserne steg yderligere, og før manglen på komponenter blev mere alvorlig.
Denne prioritering betød, at der var færre penge og mindre ledelsesmæssig opmærksomhed tilbage til IBM’s øvrige produkter. Det ramte især selskabets zSeries-mainframes og den software, som er knyttet til mainframesystemerne.
IBM havde på forhånd indregnet en vis effekt fra leveranceproblemer og knappe komponenter, men ledelsen havde undervurderet, hvor omfattende kundernes budgetomlægning ville blive. Administrerende direktør Arvind Krishna erkender direkte, at selskabet ikke havde forudset størrelsen af denne såkaldte capex-reprioritering.
Nedjusteringen skyldes dermed ikke nødvendigvis, at virksomhedernes samlede teknologibudgetter er faldet dramatisk. Problemet er snarere, at en større andel af budgetterne på kort sigt er blevet flyttet fra IBM’s traditionelle software- og mainframeprodukter til fysisk AI-relateret infrastruktur.
Svaghed i mainframeforretningen
Den største operationelle skuffelse var udviklingen i IBM’s infrastrukturforretning, hvor omsætningen faldt 7 procent. Markedet havde ventet et fald på omkring 3 procent.
IBM havde tidligere fremhævet lanceringen af z17-mainframen som den stærkeste start på et mainframeprogram i selskabets historie. Ledelsen havde derfor forventet, at den efterfølgende normalisering ville blive forholdsvis moderat. Udviklingen blev imidlertid væsentligt svagere end ventet.
Det lavere salg af mainframes havde samtidig en direkte negativ effekt på IBM’s softwareforretning. En del af selskabets Transaction Processing-software sælges sammen med eller i forlængelse af nye mainframeinstallationer. Når kunderne udskyder købet af en mainframe, bliver de tilhørende softwarelicenser derfor også udskudt.
Ifølge analytikernes vurderinger kan omsætningen inden for Transaction Processing være faldet med et tocifret procenttal. Det er særligt alvorligt, fordi området udgør tæt på 30 procent af IBM’s samlede softwareforretning og normalt har høje avancer.
Softwareomsætningen voksede samlet kun 5 procent, mens markedet havde ventet omkring 11 procent. Selv om Red Hat leverede en solid vækst på 11 procent i faste valutaer, var det ikke tilstrækkeligt til at opveje tilbagegangen i Transaction Processing og andre dele af softwareforretningen.
Store aftaler blev ikke lukket til tiden
IBM fremhæver også interne eksekveringsproblemer. Flere store aftaler, som ledelsen havde regnet med ville blive afsluttet inden kvartalets udgang, blev forsinket.
Der er ikke nødvendigvis tale om, at kunderne har annulleret aftalerne. Flere handler kan være blevet skubbet til senere kvartaler. Men når store kontrakter ikke bliver lukket inden regnskabsperiodens afslutning, påvirker det både omsætningen og indtjeningen med det samme.
Krishna erkender, at IBM ikke reagerede hurtigt nok på ændringerne i kundernes adfærd. Selskabet formåede med andre ord ikke at tilpasse salgsindsatsen og prioriteringen hurtigt nok, da kunderne begyndte at flytte budgetterne.
Dette element er vigtigt, fordi det viser, at hele skuffelsen ikke kan forklares med eksterne markedsforhold. En del af nedjusteringen kan henføres til selskabsspecifikke problemer med salgsarbejde, timing og gennemførelse.
Goldman Sachs vurderer desuden, at der var svagere efterspørgsel inden for IBM’s Data & Automation-software, og at dette i højere grad kan skyldes selskabets egen eksekvering end et generelt markedstilbageslag.
Cybersecurity skabte yderligere forsinkelser
IBM oplyser også, at kunderne i kvartalet blev optaget af hurtigt skiftende og brancheomfattende cybersikkerhedsproblemer.
Det har sandsynligvis haft to virkninger. For det første kan sikkerhedsovervejelser have forsinket større it-beslutninger og kontrakter. For det andet kan virksomhederne have omprioriteret både medarbejderressourcer og budgetter til mere presserende sikkerhedsopgaver.
Cybersikkerhedsfaktoren nævnes dog som en supplerende forklaring. Den centrale årsag til nedjusteringen er fortsat flytningen af investeringsbudgetter mod servere, storage og memory.
AI-investeringer kan fortrænge traditionel software
Det mest bekymrende aspekt for markedet er, at IBM’s problemer kan være et konkret eksempel på, at AI-boomet ikke løfter alle dele af teknologisektoren samtidig.
Virksomheder investerer kraftigt i den fysiske infrastruktur, der er nødvendig for AI: datacentre, servere, datalagring, netværksudstyr og hukommelse. Men kundernes it-budgetter er ikke ubegrænsede. Når en større del af budgettet bruges på dyr AI-infrastruktur, kan det efterlade færre midler til traditionel software, konsulentydelser og it-service.
IBM havde tidligere argumenteret for, at AI-investeringerne ville være et supplement til selskabets softwareforretning. Den aktuelle udvikling udfordrer denne fortælling. I andet kvartal ser AI-relaterede investeringer snarere ud til at have fortrængt eller forsinket dele af IBM’s traditionelle forretning.
Det er denne mekanisme, der har fået markedet til igen at tale om en mulig “SaaS-apokalypse”: en situation, hvor virksomheder flytter penge væk fra etablerede softwareleverandører og over mod knap og prisstærk hardware.
Er nedjusteringen udtryk for bredere sektorsvaghed?
Teksten giver ikke et entydigt svar. Der er argumenter både for og imod, at IBM’s skuffelse afspejler et bredere problem i teknologisektoren.
Tegn på et bredere sektorproblem
Flere af IBM’s forklaringer er ikke selskabsspecifikke.
Kundernes øgede køb af servere, storage og hukommelse hænger sammen med den generelle AI-investeringsbølge, begrænset komponentudbud og stigende priser. Andre hardwareproducenter, herunder Dell og HP, har ifølge analytikerne beskrevet lignende tendenser.
Hvis virksomhederne generelt omprioriterer deres it-budgetter på denne måde, kan det lægge pres på en bred gruppe af selskaber. Det gælder især:
- traditionelle softwareleverandører,
- SaaS-selskaber,
- it-konsulenter,
- outsourcing- og servicevirksomheder,
- leverandører af software knyttet til ældre infrastruktursystemer.
Selskaber som Accenture og Kyndryl kan eksempelvis blive ramt, hvis virksomheder udskyder konsulentprojekter eller serviceaftaler for at finansiere dyrere AI-infrastruktur.
UBS vurderer, at IBM’s melding kan være et tidligt varsel om de kommentarer, der kan komme fra andre software- og it-serviceselskaber i regnskabssæsonen. Hvis flere selskaber beskriver samme budgetforskydning, vil det være et stærkt tegn på en mere omfattende sektorsvaghed.
IBM’s resultater tyder også på, at presset på virksomhedernes it-budgetter er kommet tidligere, end investorerne havde regnet med. Det kan få markedet til at nedjustere forventningerne til vækst i traditionel virksomhedssoftware, især fra 2027 og frem.
Tegn på, at problemet i høj grad er IBM-specifikt
Omvendt indeholder nedjusteringen en række forhold, som ikke nødvendigvis kan overføres direkte til resten af sektoren.
IBM havde problemer med at lukke store aftaler til tiden og indrømmer selv, at selskabet ikke tilpassede sig hurtigt nok. Der var også tegn på svag eksekvering i dele af softwareforretningen.
Skuffelsen var desuden stærkt koncentreret omkring IBM’s zSeries-mainframes og den tilhørende Transaction Processing-software. Det er en særlig produktstruktur, som ikke findes på samme måde hos alle andre software- og serviceselskaber.
Barclays vurderer derfor, at kvartalet kan være en enkeltstående skuffelse snarere end begyndelsen på et permanent fald i efterspørgslen efter mainframes og software. Banken advarer mod at bruge IBM’s resultater som et direkte én-til-én-signal for alle software- og servicevirksomheder.
At IBM valgte at udsende forhåndsmeddelelsen mere end en uge før den planlagte regnskabspræsentation, kan også tyde på, at afvigelsen var usædvanligt stor og muligvis mere selskabsspecifik end branchetypisk.
Vindere og tabere ved budgetforskydningen
Hvis tendensen fortsætter, vil den ikke ramme hele teknologisektoren ens.
De potentielle vindere er de selskaber, der leverer de produkter, kunderne i øjeblikket prioriterer. Det gælder blandt andet producenter af servere, storage og hukommelse, herunder Dell, Hewlett Packard Enterprise og Micron.
De potentielle tabere er leverandører af traditionel software, SaaS-løsninger, konsulentydelser og it-service, især hvis deres produkter ikke er direkte nødvendige for opbygningen af AI-infrastruktur.
Det er derfor mere præcist at tale om en omfordeling inden for teknologisektoren end om et generelt kollaps i virksomhedernes it-investeringer. AI-investeringerne kan skabe stærk vækst i hardware og datacenterinfrastruktur, samtidig med at de lægger pres på andre dele af sektoren.
Langsigtede konsekvenser for IBM
IBM’s investeringshistorie har i stigende grad været baseret på, at software skulle være selskabets vigtigste vækstmotor. Nedjusteringen sår tvivl om, hvorvidt væksten i Red Hat og nyere opkøb er stærk nok til at opveje en længerevarende svaghed i Transaction Processing.
Hvis presset fortsætter, kan IBM blive nødt til at gennemføre større opkøb eller iværksætte andre vækstinitiativer for at fastholde sin langsigtede vækst i softwareforretningen.
De svage resultater kan samtidig øge markedets bekymring for nye opkøb. Ledelsen har tidligere signaleret en større appetit på fusioner og opkøb, og den aktuelle tilbagegang kan øge behovet for at købe sig til vækst.
Samlet vurdering
Nedjusteringen skyldes en kombination af tre hovedforhold:
- En kraftigere end ventet omlægning af kundernes investeringsbudgetter mod servere, storage og hukommelse.
- Svaghed i IBM’s mainframeforretning og den tilknyttede Transaction Processing-software.
- Selskabsspecifikke eksekveringsproblemer, herunder store aftaler, der ikke blev afsluttet til tiden.
Cybersecurity og forsyningsproblemer forstærkede udviklingen, men var ikke de eneste eller vigtigste forklaringer.
IBM’s melding indeholder et reelt advarselssignal for resten af software- og it-servicesektoren. Den viser, at de store AI-investeringer kan fortrænge andre teknologikøb, selv om de samlede it-budgetter fortsat er høje.
Det er dog for tidligt at konkludere, at hele sektoren står foran en bred og varig nedtur. En betydelig del af IBM’s problemer hænger sammen med selskabets særlige eksponering mod mainframes og Transaction Processing samt dets egne problemer med at gennemføre salget.
Den mest sandsynlige konklusion er derfor, at nedjusteringen både indeholder et bredt sektorsignal og et betydeligt IBM-specifikt element. Den brede risiko er en forskydning af budgetter fra software og service mod AI-hardware. Om det udvikler sig til egentlig sektorsvaghed, afhænger af, om andre software- og it-serviceselskaber rapporterer tilsvarende forsinkelser og budgetpres i de kommende kvartaler.
original analyse
Summary:
- Wall Street Desks Stunned
- IBM Shares Crash Most On Record, Exceeding Dot Com & 1987 Crashes
- CEO Arvind Krishna Blamed Preliminary 2Q Results on “Shifting” Customer CapEx Spending
IBM’s surprise second-quarter warning blindsided traders Tuesday morning, raising new concerns that enterprise technology budgets are being redirected toward AI infrastructure at the expense of traditional software and IT services.
Shares plunged 24% in the first 20 minutes of New York trading. Should those losses hold through the close, IBM would suffer its largest one-day crash on record, based on Bloomberg trading data going back to 1968.
Here’s what Wall Street’s top desks are saying in first takes:
UBS analyst Robert Ruple:
The big news this morning was a surprising negative preannouncement by IBM, down 22%, with Q2 sales of $17.2 bn versus $17.8 bn expected and EPS of $2.93 versus $3.02. Citing unanticipated capex reprioritization impacting client buying patterns with numerous large deals failing to close on time, cybersecurity distractions and some supply chain-related impact where they saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure (thanks to AI boom) ahead of expected price increases. This redirection of budgets towards AI has been a topic that Karl Keirstead/team have been articulating as potential risk for some time (particularly for incumbent SaaS suppliers and IT Services companies), which sounds like a harbinger of commentary that could be further accentuated by other software, IT services and hardware-related companies as Q2 reporting season progresses that is sure to weigh on sentiment incrementally.
David Vogt provides his initial thoughts on the IBM miss and these results suggest that enterprise IT spending pressures are hitting sooner than investors anticipated, leading to a revenue shortfall and non-GAAP EPS guidance of $2.93, below both expectations and consensus. The primary driver was weakness in IBM’s zSeries mainframe cycle, which hurt its high-margin Transaction Processing (TP) business. While Red Hat delivered solid 11% constant-currency growth and recently acquired assets such as HashiCorp and Confluent performed well, these positives were overshadowed by a sharp decline in TP revenue, which appears to have fallen in the mid-teens year over year and represents nearly 30% of IBM’s Software segment. As a result, investors are likely to reassess IBM’s long-term software growth outlook, particularly for 2027 and beyond, as rising infrastructure costs and tightening IT budgets weigh on demand. These results reinforce concerns that stronger growth areas like Red Hat may not be sufficient to offset prolonged weakness in TP business, increasing pressure on IBM to pursue larger acquisitions or other growth initiatives to sustain its software growth trajectory remaining at neutral.
Goldman analysts:
IBM: Negatively preannounced Q2 results this morning, with Revenues coming in well below estimates on shortfall led by Software & Infrastructure performance. Stock -17% in pre. Prelim Q2 Revenue missed estimates ($17.2bn vs. cons $17.9bn). Company said “did not anticipate magnitude of CapEx reprioritization.” Shortfall vs. consensus was led by “Software and Infrastructure performance shortfall.” Mgmt commentary: “What played out was worse than our expectations, driven by a shortfall in our Z performance and the associated software stack, primarily in Transaction Processing. In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases. This dynamic impacted client buying patterns. While we anticipated some supply chain related impact in our expectations, we did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization.” BOTTOM LINE: This should fully play into the Software bear case, and would imagine should drive fairly broad-based weakness across software + services layer today (most names down 3%+ early in pre).
Goldman analyst James Schneider:
What happened: We expect the stock to trade meaningfully lower following IBM’s negative pre-announcement this morning, which was driven by a shortfall in Infrastructure and Software to a lesser extent. We believe the mainframe shortfall reflects client demand re-prioritization toward near-term server and other hardware purchases given surging memory and component prices, a dynamic consistent with what peers such as Dell and HP have cited. This reprioritization also drove a shortfall in Transaction Processing because of perpetual licenses tied to new mainframe purchases. In addition, we believe the company’s Data & Automation software segment saw weaker demand due to company-specific execution issues. Red Hat results were in line with expectations at a growth of 11% in the quarter. We leave our estimates unchanged for now, pending further color from the company on next week’s earnings call on updated 2026 guidance and potential remediation efforts.
BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski:
IBM is trading -22% pre-market on a disappointing Q2 earnings pre-announcement, driven by the company’s Infrastructure (hardware) and Software businesses, blamed on capex reprioritization (i.e. crowding out) and delays caused by cybersecurity uncertainty, with no indication of any improvements yet.
Barclays analyst Andrew Keches:
The news: IBM pre-released selected 2Q26 results alongside a letter to shareholders, with revenue below expectations amid shortfalls in Software and Infrastructure. Revenue came in at $17.2bn overall (vs. $17.9bn est.), while at the segment level, Software grew 5% y/y (vs. +11% est.), Infrastructure fell 7% (vs. -3% y/y est.), and Consulting was flat (vs. +2% y/y est.). The company attributed most of the underperformance to unexpected shifts in clients’ late-quarter budget allocations toward securing supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of price increases. IBM also acknowledged an execution component, with numerous large deals failing to close on schedule.
The context: Today’s update comes at a sensitive point for IBM’s investment narrative. Software has become the company’s primary growth engine, and management had increasingly framed AI as additive to the software stack rather than a source of disruption. Today’s update complicates that framing as the shortfall was concentrated in Z and the associated Transaction Processing software stack, with clients redirecting spending toward supply-constrained servers, storage, and memory. The key debate, in our view, will be whether this represents a temporary shift in the timing of enterprise purchases, or evidence that rapid AI infrastructure investment is beginning to crowd out portions of traditional software spending.
Our take: Clearly the results are a disappointment and the equity move alone (-20% premkt as of writing) will be a drag on credit performance. Credit metrics would not be impacted in a meaningful way, but the development adds to already weak sentiment in the name. We are mindful of the pointed M&A comments made on the last call (valuations attractive, appetite could be higher than in normal years), and although this pre-release suggests nothing about the topic, weak results will add to the overhang. Moreover, IBM spreads have held in better than most A/BBB TMT curves in the recent TMT sell off, widening the differential to BBB telco and single-A software curves such as NOW. To be clear, we view this quarter as a one-off rather than a step function in mainframe and software demand and also acknowledge that IBM has the cash flow to absorb medium sized M&A, but the impetus to step in and defend the structure at these levels is not obvious to us.
Laterals: The clearest potential beneficiaries from IBM’s commentary are hardware providers levered to the spending categories being prioritized, such as servers and storage at DELL and HPE, and memory at MU. Conversely, the update may reinforce concerns around software names broadly, as well as consulting and IT-services businesses such as ACN and KD, if AI infrastructure investment is crowding out other portions of enterprise technology budgets. That said, we are somewhat surprised by the breadth of the read-through across the group so far this morning. IBM explicitly acknowledged company-specific execution issues, including large deals that failed to close on schedule, and the decision to pre-release more than a week before its scheduled earnings call suggests that its shortfall may be more outlier than industry-wide. We understand that this is a “sell first, ask questions later” market, but we would be cautious about treating IBM’s results as a 1:1 read-through to every software and services company.
Laterals: The clearest potential beneficiaries from IBM’s commentary are hardware providers levered to the spending categories being prioritized, such as servers and storage at DELL and HPE, and memory at MU. Conversely, the update may reinforce concerns around software names broadly, as well as consulting and IT-services businesses such as ACN and KD, if AI infrastructure investment is crowding out other portions of enterprise technology budgets. That said, we are somewhat surprised by the breadth of the read-through across the group so far this morning. IBM explicitly acknowledged company-specific execution issues, including large deals that failed to close on schedule, and the decision to pre-release more than a week before its scheduled earnings call suggests that its shortfall may be more outlier than industry-wide. We understand that this is a “sell first, ask questions later” market, but we would be cautious about treating IBM’s results as a 1:1 read-through to every software and services company.
Bloomberg tracked analysts have an average 12-month price target of $300 on IBM, highlighting how far Wall Street expectations had run ahead of the shock preliminary second-quarter results earlier. Of the 25 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it a Buy, six are Neutral and just two recommend selling.
SaaSpocalypse Is Back: IBM Crashes Most Since 1987 As Customers Abruptly “Shift CapEx Spending”
IBM shares plunged almost 20% in premarket trading, putting the stock on track for its worst intra-day collapse since the infamous Oct. 19, 1987.
Worse than the Dot Com crash…
The catalyst for the selloff was IBM CEO Arvind Krishna’s letter to investors outlining preliminary second-quarter results.
Here is what’s key:
- IBM CEO: DID NOT ANTICIPATE MAGNITUDE OF CAPEX REPRIORITIZATION
Traders were likely caught off guard by a 7% decline in infrastructure revenue, raising new concerns about demand across one of IBM’s key business segments.
Here are the preliminary 2Q results:
- Revenue of $17.2 billion, up 1%
- Software revenue up 5%
- Consulting revenue flat, up 1% at constant currency
- Infrastructure revenue down 7%
Krishna detailed in the letter to investors that customers unexpectedly redirected their June technology budgets toward servers, storage and memory to secure scarce equipment before anticipated price increases.
In return, that left less money and management attention available for IBM’s z17 mainframes and related transaction-processing software. Deals IBM expected to close during the quarter were delayed or pushed into later periods, rather than necessarily canceled outright.
Here are Bloomberg headlines:
- IBM CEO: SAW CLIENTS SHIFT QUARTERLY CAPEX SPEND IN JUNE
- IBM CEO: THIS DYNAMIC IMPACTED CLIENT BUYING PATTERNS
Signaling a return to the SaaSpocalypse (client spend shifting from commoditized software to constrained hardware), Krishna wrote:
When we discussed our expectations with you in April, we noted that we would be wrapping on the launch of z17 in the second quarter.
Given this was the strongest start to a mainframe program in our history, we expected Infrastructure revenue to decline low-single digits for the year, beginning this quarter.
What played out was worse than our expectations, driven by a shortfall in our Z performance and the associated software stack, primarily in Transaction Processing.
In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases.
This dynamic impacted client buying patterns. While we anticipated some supply chain related impact in our expectations, we did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization.
In addition, clients were distracted with rapidly-evolving, industry-wide cybersecurity concerns in the quarter.
Krishna also admitted: “We did not adapt and move quickly enough,” with large deals failing to close on expected timelines.
The key question is whether IBM is emerging as an early warning sign that the AI boom is beginning to crack, with a potential “token revolt” taking shape as customers push back against surging AI costs.
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