PMI data for Rusland fra Markit:
“Key economic activity indicators surprised positively, the November HSBC Russia Manufacturing PMI survey found. We think that manufacturers either benefit from substitution of expensive imports or just misinterpret a temporary spike in demand driven by the increased inflationary expectations (‘buy whilst still cheap’). In the former case, a robust performance in manufacturing would have longer legs and may continue in the coming months. In the latter case, manufacturers would see a drop in demand soon. “Input prices surged at a rate not yet seen in this century. Fast rouble depreciation should be blamed for that, the surveyed firms said. Importantly, the pass-through effect from the weaker currency on costs and output inflation is stronger this time, compared to the one observed in 1H this year on the back of the first round of rouble weakening. “In combination with the stronger demand and output growth in November, rising prices at manufacturers predicts the continuation of fast growth on consumer prices as well. Thus, prospects of the emergence of double-digit inflation in the coming months become more solid. So does the probability of another policy rate hike, if the Central Bank keeps setting its key policy rate at or above annual headline inflation.”
