BNP Paribas skriver i et forscrap til denne uges PMI data:
Eurozone: Small improvements in December sentiment.
This week’s focus will be on sentiment data, which are expected to show broad-based improvement in December. Released on Tuesday, the eurozone ‘flash’ PMI should post a 0.2 increase to 51.3, ending the indicator’s slide since the summer. On Thursday, Germany’s Ifo business climate index is expected to have improved for a second consecutive month, reaching 105.2 in December (up 0.5), thereby muting concerns that the economy will stay stuck at closeto-zero growth for much longer. There is a risk that political developments in Greece affected sentiment again, which would be another reminder of the fragility of the eurozone’s economy. Even if our forecasts are correct, better sentiment at the end of 2014 is still unlikely to translate into better growth any earlier than Q1. Survey averages in Q4 remain below those of Q3, suggesting Q4 growth will be soft. Our forecast remains for a rather unspectacular 0.1% q/q expansion in Germany and the eurozone as a whole.
