Konklusion her:
In addition to being the world’s second-largest overall economy, China is the largest economy in Asia. From the perspective of investors, the size and scope of the Chinese economy mean great potential for both risk and opportunity: the risk is more short term as China needs to rebalance its economy and avoid a hard landing; while the opportunity is medium and long term as China will—in a few years—become the largest economy in the world and the largest market. A rising China is, perhaps, the key center of gravity in developing Asia, which is now the fastest-growing region of the world.
Under such circumstances, it’s reasonable to assume that China will assert itself defensively—for example, to maintain the security of vital international shipping lanes in the region.
Without the ability to defend its trade routes, it would be possible for a regional rival to strangle China’s economic growth, which is a proposition that neither the Chinese leadership nor the broader population would be willing to accept. China will continue to project its power in the region in a way that is consistent with its national interest. And we will continue to watch their progress.
As I project forward to the future of Asia in 10 or 20 years, I envision a China that will continue to stretch its economic and international trading power. A China that will assert itself more broadly in the political sphere. A China that will exert increasing influence in its own geographic region. A China that will continue to project its geopolitical power, as it rises to address the challenges of a great world power in 21st-century Asia.
And, ultimately, a China that will open a door to long-term opportunities for astute investors.
