analyse fra BNP Paribas:
The stars are aligning to drive EUR lower with EURUSD our preferred candidate to maximise profitability. EURUSD this morning
reached its lowest level since Q1 2006 at 1.1864. Concern over the upcoming Greek election on January 25 is a contributing
factor but the real driver is falling inflation and hints from ECB members that direct policy action – namely sovereign QE – is
imminent. Interviews published last week with both Draghi and Praet hint at our economists’ call for broad-based QE to be
announced at the next policy meeting on January 22. This morning’s much lower December CPI readings for the German
Bundeslander are consistent with a lower German HICP today and also our call for negative eurozone CPI on Wednesday (-
0.1% y/y). Both releases should weigh further on EUR if correct. Our own BNP Paribas STEER™ model this morning signals
EURUSD at 1.1898 (see chart) suggesting that the fall is consistent with market fundamentals. We believe EURUSD will fall
further. We target 1.18 on our short EURUSD trade recommendation (entry at 1.2520 on October 31). This week’s inflation
readings are set to be the prime catalysts.
