Europæisk økonomi på vej mod bedring i 2015

Analyse fra Natixis

Will the demand stimulus in the euro zone speed up or slow down reforms? Author: Patrick Artus It now seems clear that 2015 will be better than expected in the euro zone, with demand being boosted by the euro, the oil price, the Juncker plan, a slow reduction in fiscal deficits and very low interest rates. Euro-zone growth in 2015 will probably be around 1.5%, 0.5 percentage point more than what was expected. But it is also clear that many reforms remain to be carried out in the euro zone: fiscal consolidation to stabilise public debt ratios (with the exception of Germany), support of innovation to increase technological progress and potential growth, improvement in education and training systems, increased competition, labour market reforms in several countries, etc. The key question is then as follows: will euro-zone countries take advantage of the stronger growth in 2015 to speed up the pace of reforms (with this stronger growth offsetting the initially negative impact of certain reforms on demand) or will they, on the contrary, defer the reforms (since they will seem to be less necessary)?