Økonomisk Ugebrevs Konjunkturbarometer for den Globale Økonomi har de seneste år viste en positiv score, og vækstdriverne har i høj grad været USA og Kina. Ved den seneste opdatering af barometerstanden for to uger siden gik scoren i minus – til minus 0,3 i det samlede udfaldsrum mellem plus to og minus to. I opgørelsen denne gang er scoren den samme, nemlig minus 0,3. Men der har siden sidst været ændringer i to af de ti signaler. For det første ser det ud til, at den økonomiske opbremsning i Europa er ved at være overstået. Både det tyske IFO-indeks og ZEW-målingen har de seneste måneder vist positive takter. Fra IFO lyder det, at ”in manufacturing the business climate indicator rose for the third month in succession. Assessments of the current business situation were better and manufacturers also expressed greater confidence in short-term business developments. Stronger impulses are expected from exports thanks to the falling euro exchange rate. Capacity utilisation rates rose by 0.4 percentage points to 84.6 percent.”
Det er også godt for dansk økonomi, hvis tysk økonomi nu trækker fremad. Der kan imidlertid sås tvivl om holdbarheden i det spirende opsving, da både Kina og USA viser svaghedstegn. Markit skriver i den seneste Flash PMI for Kina, at ”the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in the flash reading for January, up from 49.6 in December. Domestic demand improved marginally while external demand remained solid. The labour market weakened and prices fell further. Today’s data suggest that the manufacturing slowdown is still ongoing amidst weak domestic demand. More monetary and fiscal easing measures will be needed to support growth in the coming months.” Opbremsningen i Kina understøttes af de faldende råvarepriser, hvor udviklingen i kinesisk fremstillingsindustri har været styrende for priserne de seneste mange år.
På overfladen viser USA’s økonomi fortsat styrketegn, eksempelvis i den ledende indikator fra Conference Board: ”December’s gain in the LEI was driven by a majority of its components, suggesting the short-term outlook is getting brighter and the economy continues to build momentum,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “Still, a lack of growth in residential construction and average weekly hours in manufacturing remains a concern. Current economic conditions measured by the coincident indicators show employment and income gains are helping to keep the U.S. economy on a solid expansionary path despite some weakness in industrial production.”
Også de nye data for forbrugertilliden er positive: ”Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, said: “Consumer confidence rose sharply in January, and is now at its highest level since August 2007 (Index, 105.6). A more positive assessment of current business and labor market conditions contributed to the improvement in consumers’ view of the present situation. Consumers also expressed a considerably higher degree of optimism regarding the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market, as well as their earnings.”
Underliggende er der nogle klare bekymrende signaler, som trækker den anden vej. For det første ECRI-indikatoren, der fredag igen viste tilbagefald. For det andet Citigroup Economic Surprise index. Samlet set synes den globale økonomi at stå over for betydelige udfordringer, nu med Europa som en isoleret lille lyspunkt.
