Analyse: To alvorlige risici ved ECB’s QE- obligationsopkøb

Analyse fra Natixis

Quantitative easing (which is set to start in the euro zone) leads to two serious problems, related but of a different nature: • A shortfall in the supply of risk-free assets (mainly government bonds) that remains available for investors, leading to absurdly low interest rates on risk-free bonds as a result of the chronic excess demand for these bonds. The quantity of such bonds must be large enough for economies to function “harmoniously”, which is no longer the case with quantitative easing. This is all the more so as these risk-free bonds are already held as foreign exchange reserves; • An excessively low level of risk premia on risky assets: investors are forced to switch from risk-free assets to risky assets because of the shortfall in the supply of risk-free assets. This drives down risk premia to an abnormal extent, and the result is that investors buy risky assets without receiving the corresponding risk premia, which is extremely dangerous. Investors are therefore faced with two risks in the future: a rise in risk-free interest rates, unless central banks decide to prevent it for good; and a repricing of risk.