Goldman Sachs har analyseret virkningen på aktierne af politisk uro, af geopolitiske chock og af recessioner eller bear-markets. Analysen viser, at geopolitiske spændinger som krigen i Ukraine påvirker markederne langt mindre end recessioner, så investorerne skal ikke blive alt for urolige over spændinger som mellem f.eks. stormagterne. Det viser de kursfald, der har været som følge af de tre typer negative udviklinger.
Geopolitics: Short-Lived Shocks
Political Noise, Geopolitical Shocks, and Recessionary Bears
Geopolitics has become top of mind this year, with the Federal Reserve’s geopolitical risk index surging on the back of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Still, we believe that not all sources of volatility are created equally. Global equity markets have historically been more resilient through these unexpected geopolitical shocks than they have been in recessions.
Source: Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
