Update: Finanshuse om konsekvenser af Ukrainekrisen

BBC: Her er Putins krav for at indgå en fredsaftale. BBC skriver bl.a.: ”Turkey has positioned itself with great care to be the go-between with Russia and Ukraine – and this seems to be paying off. On Thursday afternoon, President Vladimir Putin rang the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and told him what Russia’s precise demands were for a peace deal with Ukraine. Within half an hour of the ending of the phone call, I interviewed Mr Erdogan’s leading adviser and spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin. Mr Kalin was part of the small group of officials who had listened in on the call. The Russian demands fall into two categories. The first four demands are, according to Mr Kalin, not too difficult for Ukraine to meet. Chief among them is an acceptance by Ukraine that it should be neutral and should not apply to join Nato. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has already conceded this.”

RBC ser to sandsynlige scenarier for krigen i Ukraine: Finanshuset RBC skriver: ”The war could still resolve in a number of different directions. At its essence, the debate is centred on two scenarios: 1. Is it the Russian goal to create a buffer of allied and dependent states along its border as it sought and secured when it invaded parts of Georgia in 2008 (and as it may today seek in the form of Ukraine’s eastern provinces)? 2. Or, is the situation instead akin to Russia’s 1994 invasion of Chechnya? Here Russia captured and then absorbed the whole of a country that had declared independence several years earlier when the Soviet Union fell.- If the goal is the former and Russia’s broad attack has simply been to make Ukraine and the West more willing to cede the eastern provinces in a peace deal, then a cease-fire could be reached fairly quickly. Indeed, the tone of reporting around negotiations gives the impression that there is the real chance of a deal being struck. Russia is no longer demanding regime change in Ukraine. A Ukrainian negotiator has said “Russia is already beginning to talk constructively.” Russian President Putin has also indicated there have been “positive shifts” in the talks.””

ING: Flaskehalsene i de globale logistikkæder er tilbage, før de nåede at forsvinde: Finanshuset ING skriver, at ”Supply chains: a new round of challenges. The war in Ukraine is putting global supply chains to the test again. Even before the conflict began, supply chain frictions had only improved marginally from the pandemic. While container handling had picked up significantly in many regions, schedule reliability – the actual on-time performance of individual vessel arrivals in ports tracked by Sea-Intelligence – dropped to 30.9%, marking a new all-time low. In terms of shipping rates, there has been some relief in the spot market, but the shift to long term contracts has meant that higher container tariffs are now locked in.”

Unicredit: Får vi et europæisk stop for olie- og naturgaskøb i Rusland? Unikredit skriver ”On Tuesday, the US and the UK announced a ban on the import of Russian oil. Apart from the political statement of intent, this is economically immaterial. Russia supplies only about 3% of US oil imports (6% of UK oil imports), which can easily be substituted by other providers. Meanwhile, the pressure has been building on the EU to follow suit, but so far, European political leaders (especially in Germany, Italy and Austria) have rejected such a move because of the impact it would have on the European economy and households more broadly. But maybe this discussion will turn out to be irrelevant. Putin has instructed his government to prepare a list of commodities and manufactured products which he wants to ban from being exported until the end of the year. However, as of yesterday, energy and energy products had not emerged on the list, but the stand-off has surely begun. (…) Putin seems willing to accept any amount of economic hardship on his population in order to complete whatever it is he has in mind for Ukraine, to be achieved with no apparent regard for casualties and destruction. And the prospect of him being unseated is minimum. As I argued last Sunday, even the most extreme sanctions will leave enough money and privilege for him to pay off his inner circle. And the prospect of a popular uprising seems slim as police and security forces across Russia are stepping up the violence against demonstrations.”

MWL