Økonomisk Ugebrev bringer løbende uddrag fra en lang række danske og udenlandske finanshuses analyser af de finansielle markeder, makroøkonomi og temanalyser. På denne side giver vi et kort resume af de vigtigste analyser fra den forgangne uge.
Økonomisk Ugebrevs analysearkiv, som kan findes her, giver direkte adgang til analyser og opdateringer fra ca. 50 danske og udenlandske finanshuse, opdelt på en stribe forskellige kategorier, bl.a. makro, fixed income, kort rente og status fra centralbankerne, FX, temaanalyser og direkte adgang til originalkilde for en stribe centrale økonomiske nøgletal. De løbende analyser bringes på ugebrev.dk.
Stimuli vigtigere end USA-valget. (Morgan Stanley) Finanshuset skriver i en vurdering af det amerikanske valg, at det endelige valgresultatet måske først kommer efter flere dage eller uger efter selve valgdagen på grund af en ekstrem stigning i antallet af brevstemmer. Og derfor vil de efterfølgende stimulipakker være vigtigere for aktiemarkedet end selve valgresultater.
Derfor bør investorerne ikke reagere for hurtigt. Stimulipakker bliver afgørende for, hvordan økonomien – og de finansielle markeder – udvikler sig i 2021, lyder vurderingen. Link til analyse.
Lagarde sets scene for furtherstimulus. (ABN Amro) “ECB View: Further stimulus looks likely despite opposition – ECB President Christine Lagarde spoke recently before the ECON Committee of the European Parliament (see here). She struck a dovish tone, which signalled that further monetary stimulus is likely.
Ms. Lagarde noted that ‘the recovery remains incomplete, uncertain and uneven’ and that ‘the public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity and poses downside risks to the economic outlook’.
In addition, ‘the sharp drop in economic activity earlier this year has weakened price pressures’ that inflation was ‘expected to remain negative over the coming months’ and was ‘clearly far away’ from the ECB’s goal.” Link til analyse.
No Biden meltdown. Takeaways from the first presidential debate. (Nordea) “Many market participants feared volatility around the first presidential debate due to the risk of a Biden meltdown, but such fears were unfounded. We watched the full first presidential debate and here are our key takeaways. Our key takeaways: Biden performed much better than feared (by some).
All debate on whether Biden is mentally healthy should end after tonight, but probably wont. Trump probably gains the most from 1-to-1 debates against Biden. Markets remained calm throughout the debate. Our base case is a Biden-victory and a risk asset rally, including a weaker USD, after the election.
The first presidential debate did not lead to material market moves as fears of a Biden meltdown were proven unfounded. Biden performed (much) better than feared by many and was never close to a “melt-down” as some market participants saw a risk off. All debate on whether Biden is mentally healthy should rightfully end after tonight, but it probably won’t.
Having said that, it is still clear when watching the debate, that Trump gains the most from 1-to-1 debates against Biden. Biden struggles to bite back fully when Trump bullies and constantly interrupts, while Biden performs better when Trump allows him to speak freely.” Link til analyse.
Wells Fargo forudser et S&P500 indeks på 3850 i 2021. Finanshuset ser positivt på aktiemarkederne, fordi økonomien efter bankens opfattelse klarer sig bedre end ventet i år og næste år, især i Europa, og det smitter af på de amerikanske aktier.
Wells Fargo venter, at S&P500-indekset slutter dette år på 3580, mens det bliver højere ved slutningen af næste år, på 3850. Wells Fargo opstiller en liste over sine favorit-sektorer med Informations Teknologi helt i toppen. Link til analyse.
MWL
