ABG har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af Penneo:
- Q3 largely in line with our recently adjusted estimates
- Aspires to grow ARR by 40-60% in ’22 (ABGSCe 50%)
- Fine-tuning estimates, FVR maintained at DKK 24-47
ARR growth still impressive at 53% y-o-y, churn remains low
Penneo reported Q3 numbers that were largely in line or slightly ahead of our updated estimates following the recent ’21 guidance downgrade. ARR is now DKK 50.2m (ABGSCe 49.1m), corresponding to a 53% y-o-y growth rate (ABGSCe 51%), which consists of 3% churn, 27% upselling to existing clients and 29% growth from sales to new clients. Unexpectedly, Penneo communicated an aspiration of 40-60% growth in ’22, which encloses our estimate of 50% growth in ’22. We understand the aspiration was communicated due to the contemplated DKK 100m new share issue, which we believe Penneo will use to institutionalise its shareholder register via a directed issue (i.e. likely no pre-emptive rights to existing shareholders).
Generalt om Commissioned Research: Bemærk, at man bør se bort fra eventuelle kursestimater i såkaldt commissioned research, og den underliggende analyse skal også tolkes med forsigtighed, da negative aspekter ikke nødvendigvis fremhæves.
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