ABG har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af Vestjysk Bank:
- 2021 net profit guidance upgrade driven by a tax gain
- Good business momentum and DJS merger on track
- VB is trading at a 2023e adj. PE of 10.3x
DJS synergies to roll into Q4’21e; moderate lending growth
On Thursday Vestjysk bank (VB) upgraded its guidance for 2021 net profit to DKK 1,080m (DKK 950m-1,050m) due to a high level of business activity as well as a tax gain. We expect moderate lending growth in Q4’21e of 1% q-o-q. NII could be up 2.5% q-o-q with help from NII from the write-down account. We expect Q4 fees of DKK 151m slightly up from Q3’21 and decent trading income of DKK 25m. We anticipate Q4’21e costs of DKK 257m, down 5% y-o-y (using our DJS Q4’20 estimated costs), driven by DJS synergies of DKK 20m. We expect net loan loss reversals of DKK 5m in Q4’21e, despite prices for Danish pork meat coming down to DKK 8.1/kg yesterday, which has negative implications for the 3.4% exposure to pork farming. Other sectors look good and VB has reserved DKK 258m for economic uncertainty (1.5% of lending). We believe that the bank could book a DKK 63m net tax gain in Q4, which would explain a large part of the guidance upgrade yesterday. VB consolidating profit for H2’21 could lead to CET1 being up 130bp q-o-q, to 19.1%. We expect no DPS for 2021.
Generalt om Commissioned Research: Bemærk, at man bør se bort fra eventuelle kursestimater i såkaldt commissioned research, og den underliggende analyse skal også tolkes med forsigtighed, da negative aspekter ikke nødvendigvis fremhæves.
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