Ifølge en analyse fra ABN Amro kommer forbruget i eurozonen stærkt tilbage, og det sker tidligere end ventet, fordi økonomien er åbnet kraftigt her i juni. Men på en række områder kommer vi ikke helt tilbage på det gamle niveau fra før pandemien. Det private forbrug vil fortsat ligge lidt under, og lønningerne er faktisk faldet i årets første måneder, mens inflationen er steget. Beskæftigelsen kommer heller ikke tilbage til det gamle niveau, og det samme gælder opsparingen.
Uddrag fra ABN Amro:
Global Daily – Eurozone consumption bounces back + Fed speakers update
Euro Macro: Consumption bouncing back rapidly – Lockdown measures have been unwound rapidly in the eurozone since the middle of May.
The accelerating the pace of vaccinations since March has encouraged governments to end curfews and allow shops, hotels, restaurants and the sports, entertainment and leisure industries to re-open, albeit often with some form of social distancing measures.
The unwinding of lockdown measures has been somewhat earlier than we had assumed before, i.e. around the middle of Q2 instead of at the end of Q2. This means that the rebound in private consumption growth will partly shift towards Q2 and away from Q3.
High frequency data for visits to retail and recreation shows that by mid-June, activity had returned to about 5-6% below pre-pandemic levels in Germany, France and Italy, whereas in Spain the gap still was around 14%.
We expect the gap versus pre-pandemic levels to close further in the coming months, as the tourism season starts and social distancing measures are expected to be unwound further.
We expect private consumption to grow by around 3% qoq in Q2 (following -2.3% in Q1) and another 4.5% in Q3.
However, we expect the level of private consumption to remain below pre-pandemic levels at the end of this year. To begin with, household disposable income (which increased by only 0.5% in nominal term in 2020 and by 0.3% in real terms), will probably decline in real terms in 2021. Wage growth has declined in the first months of this year, while inflation has accelerated.
Moreover, the level of employment will probably also remain below pre-pandemic levels throughout 2021. Finally, the savings rate should fall further in the remainder of the year but is expected to remain somewhat above pre-pandemic levels.
