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Finans

Aktierne i Asien retter sig i håb om stimuli

Hugo Gaarden

tirsdag 10. marts 2020 kl. 9:00

De asiatiske markeder rettede sig tirsdag under formodning om, at der kommer økonomiske stimuli fra centralbankerne og regeringerne. Oliepriserne er steget en smule.

Uddrag fra Fidelity/Reuters:

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia shares bounce as stimulus hopes stem rout, for now

 

Asian shares bounced and bond yields rose from historic lows on Tuesday as speculation of coordinated stimulus from global central banks and governments calmed panic selling.

Yields on benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury debt more than doubled to 0.70% and oil prices rallied over 7%, offering hope that markets had found a floor, even just fleetingly.

“Talk of coordinated fiscal and monetary support is getting louder,” said Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank, noting U.S. President Donald Trump was promising “major” steps to support the economy.

Trump plans a news conference later on Tuesday to lay out proposed measures and dealers reported rumours Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin was pushing for radical action.

Investors seemed to take heart with E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 rallying 2.5% after an early slide. EUROSTOXX 50 futures also rose 1.7%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped nearly 1%, having shed more than 5% on Monday. Australia rose 0.9% as some went hunting for bargains in beaten down stocks. Japan’s Nikkei eased 0.3%, but was well above early lows.

Wall Street had been on the brink of a bear market with all the major indices down almost 20% from their all-time peak, which amazingly were touched just 13 sessions ago.

The Dow fell an eye-watering 7.79%, while the S&P 500 lost 7.60% and the Nasdaq 7.29%.

Energy stocks had led the losses as markets braced for a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

A steadier tone on Tuesday saw Brent crude futures add $2.50 to $36.86 a barrel, while U.S. crude bounced $2.14 to $32.27.

Yet headlines on the coronavirus were still no brighter with Italy ordering everyone across the country not to move around other than for work and emergencies, while banning all public gatherings. “Although uncertainty is very high, we now expect similar restrictions will be put in place across Europe in the coming weeks,” warned economists at JPMorgan.

“We are now expecting a rolling 1H20 global growth contraction and a powerful global disinflationary wave to take hold,” they added. “We expect the Fed to cut to zero at or before its March 18 meeting.”

ONUS ON CENTRAL BANKS

Such has been the conflagration of market wealth, that analysts assumed policy makers would have to react aggressively to prevent a self-fulfilling economic crisis.

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Monday sharply stepped up the size of its fund injections into markets to head off stress.

Having delivered an emergency rate cut only last week, investors are fully pricing an easing of at least 75 basis points at the next Fed meeting on March 18, while a cut to near zero was now seen as likely by April.

Britain’s finance minister is due to deliver his annual budget on Wednesday and there is much talk of coordinated stimulus with the Bank of England.

The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and will be under intense pressure to act, even though rates there are already deeply negative.

“Italy’s decision to quarantine the whole country will affect 15% of Europe’s GDP, putting thee ECB at the forefront of efforts to cushion the escalating economic deterioration,” said Brian Martin, a senior international economist at ANZ.

“We expect interest rates to be cut, forward guidance to be enhanced and emergency liquidity measures aimed at supporting SMEs and supply-chain finance to be implemented.”

 

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