Amerikanske inflationsdata var en ubehagelig overraskelse: Analyser af ledelse, geopolitik, AI og digitalisering

FT’s John Authers: Amerikanske inflationsdata var en ubehagelig overraskelse, hvilket tyder på en risiko for ny overophedning. Core inflation i serviceindustri på vej op: ”Der kan være nogle skævheder i de aktuelle data, men ikke nok til at omstøde den grundlæggende konklusion. Billedet er stigende priser, hvis man fjerner de priselementer, som svinger mest fra måned til måned. Servicesektorens lønninger og boligudgifter vil fortsat være de største problemer. Obligationsmarkedets skifte siden “Powell Pivot” er nu blevet vendt på hovedet. Aktierne blev sat ned efter de nye inflationsdata på grund af usædvanlig bullishness. Men tendensen ser stadig ud til at være opadgående.” (frit oversat). Læs hele analysen her.

DnB’s basis scenarie er, at OPEC vil presse oliepriserne op: “OPEC playing defence in 2024 The main expectation for oil prices was that, with OPEC in full control of the downside risk, it would keep the market undersupplied, let oil prices rise, and add production back to the market in 2024. However, the oil market balance has softened more than expected, forcing OPEC to make deeper production cuts, and play defence in 2024. Our base case is for OPEC to succeed, flipping the market back to undersupply, but by a thin margin. If supply continues to surprise to the upside, we believe OPEC might shift its output strategy from price focus to volume focus. This would create turmoil in the market and send oil prices sharply lower in our opinion. Based on fundamentals, we believe the risk is skewed to the downside for 2024, as OPEC is under continued pressure. Only significant supply disruptions from escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East can provide material upside risk to oil prices, in our view.” Læs hele analysen på 31 sider her.

ING: En tilbagevenden til virkeligheden på vejen mod opskalering af brint. ”We expect the hydrogen market to grow in 2024, but less so than many have hoped for. The year ahead is also set to deliver policies for future growth.

The actual number and size of new projects are less important; attention should now shift to turning them into success stories so that confidence in hydrogen is able to flourish. Hydrogen provides a way to transition away from fossil fuels. 2023 failed to bring rapid and large cost declines. 2024 will bring more realism to the hydrogen buzz. Hydrogen will show its true colours – and emissions – in 2024. Should the focus be on hydrogen’s emissions or building an electrolyser industry? Hydrogen won’t surprise in 2024 unless demand kicks off. Key developments to watch in 2024.” Læs hele analysen her.

Natixis: De positive antagelser om det europæiske aktiemarked hænger ikke sammen: “The consensus outlook for European equities is positive, as investors in European equities: n Believe long-term interest rates will remain low; n Believe that corporate profit margins will not fall; n Are not pricing in geopolitical risk. First, we note that this favourable scenario is inconsistent: if profit margins remain stable, inflation will be fairly high (it will follow the rise in unit labour costs) and long-term interest rates will rise again. Conversely, if long-term interest rates are kept low, it is because profit margins are falling. Lastly, geopolitical risk should be priced in, in particular the consequences of the possible election of Donald Trump on NATO and US aid to Ukraine(..) Conclusion: The favourable scenario expected by financial markets cannot materialize. First, this favourable scenario, which has sent stock market indices soaring (Chart 1), assumes that geopolitical risk has no impact on equity valuations, which will prove incorrect in the long term. Second, this favourable scenario is inconsistent: if corporate profit margins remain high, inflation will keep pace with unit labour costs and remain high, leading to a rise in long-term interest rates; to keep long-term interest rates low, inflation must continue to fall, which implies a sharp fall in profit margins.” Læs hele analysen her.

Morten W. Langer