ABN Amro har analyseret Joe Bidens forslag til en grøn politik. En meget stor del af hjælpepakken på 2000 milliarder dollar tager sigte på at styrke den grønne politik ved at investere mest i de stater, som har den største CO2-udledning, f.eks. ved at gøre transporten mere grøn. Banken venter, at Biden også vil satse på stater, hvor Demokraterne via en grøn politik har en chance for at få fremgang ved valget i 2024, dvs. stater, hvor Republikanerne ikke har et massivt flertal. Det gælder f.eks. Texas, som derfor vil få en forholdsvis stor andel af midlerne til den grønne politik. Men der bliver også sat midler af til de stater, der rammes hårdt af klima-betingede katastrofer, så de bedre kan klare fremtidige naturkatastrofer.
- President Biden’s plan is to re-join the Paris agreement by executive order, and spend USD2 trillion on renewable investment over the coming four years
- We expect investment of this USD2 trillion to be targeted towards the highest emitting states, which together emit more than 50% of US CO2 emissions, with additional targeted investments for CO2 intensive electricity and transportation states, representing an additional 30% of US CO2 emissions
- If growth-supportive investment is targeted towards Republican states where CO2 intensity is high, and where the Republican voting margin is small, this plan could also boost Democrat prospects in the 2024 election.
- This would further raise the chances of success in achieving climate goals. With this in mind, Texas may attract a relatively high share of investments
- The biggest potential cost savings from climate-related damage would be in three of the four high emitting regions, where more than 50% of US natural disaster costs were incurred in the past 40 years
- The energy transition is already underway, with 50% of the total increase in renewables generation for September 2020 year to date from five Republican states, with Texas leading as the largest energy producer
Biden’s Climate Promise – to re-join the Paris Climate Agreement, reinstate emissions rules, and to invest USD 2 trillion to confront the “grave threat” of climate change – gave rise to two central questions.
- What does Biden’s promise imply for global emissions and global temperature trajectory?
- Where can the most cost effective and efficient CO2 emissions reduction within the US be made?
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