BNP Paribas mener, at worst case risikoen ved corona-virussen er inkalkuleret i priserne, så derfor mener banken, at man gradvist kan købe op i selektive dele.
Uddrag fra BNP Paribas:
We started the year with a low allocation as levels of risk
appetite were exaggerated, in our view. With the BNPPglobal risk premium values meriting less caution, we have increased the exposure in Brazil DIs and EM FX.
While we do not aim to downplay the negative impact of
the coronavirus outbreak on the incipient economic
recovery in Asia, we believe that EM risk assets have
already priced in a worst case scenario. We see the
current sell-off as an opportunity to gradually increase
our allocations in selective assets.
We, therefore, decided to increase our allocation in our
basket of EM FX to USD100mn from USD80mn
(11.11AM NYT). Carry is 40bp positive per month.
Weights, target, maturity (18 March 2020) and stops
remain the same.
This position is structural, which means it is independent
of our short-term/tactical positions.
We also adjusted the allocation in Brazilian DI FRA Jan23s24s receivers to USD60,000 DV01 from USD50,000 DV01 at 7.19%.
EM Basket: 25% BRL, 15% MXN, 7.5% COP, 7.5% CLP,
10% ZAR, 10% TRY, 10% IDR, and 15% RUB against
the US dollar.
