De forrygende aktieår fortsætter ikke i 2022, og ifølge Citi bliver der en skarpere selektion mellem to aktiegrupper og resten. Aktiemarkedet vil blive præget af to tendenser: 1. Virkomheder, der løber foran i deres egen branche samt industrier, der får en voksende andel af økonomien. 2. Virksomheder, der er grønne, og som kan skabe solid indtjening til aktionærerne. Det generelle er, at digitaliseringen og data bliver den økonomiske “main stream” – det bliver kernen, som olien har været det hidtil. Det afgørende er at passe på værdierne i data, ligesom man skal passe på maskinerne i en fabrik. Derfor bliver cybersecurity det helt store vækstområde. Citi forventer, at dette marked vil vokse fra 187 millarder dollar til 269 milliarder dollar de næste fem år.
Seeking Outperformance Post-Pandemic
The performance of financial markets since late February 2020, the moment when pandemic fears paralyzed the world, has been nothing short of spectacular. From Jan 31, 2020 to Nov 15, 2021, the S&P 500 is up 39% and the Nasdaq composite is up 69%. Citi analysts believe the outlook for 2022 is unlikely to be so dramatic.
Citi analysts believe potential long-term returns in equity markets may be enhanced by focusing on two corporate attributes.
- Investing in firms that consistently lead their industry and within industries that grow as a share of the overall economy; and
- Investing in firms that sustainably grow income distributions to shareholders.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Real results may vary.
Citi analysts also believe portfolios should be aligned toward sustainable return drivers. Accelerating global healthcare spending is one such long-term potential opportunity. Digitization is another. Think of digital as the “main stream economy” with traditional industries adapting to it or fading against it.
What oil and coal was to the industrial revolution, data is to the digital revolution. As with any vital resource, data needs to be protected against increasingly brazen attempts to compromise it.
Data defense is a strong opportunity for investors. Global expenditure on cyber security is estimated to reach US$269bn by 2026, up from US$187bn in 2021.
While valuations trade at a premium to the broader technology and software indices, Citi analysts believe cyber security investments are justified by their stable revenue and earnings prospects
