Citi vurderer, at aktieafkastene bliver betydeligt lavere i de kommende to år – på omkring 7-8 pct. Det står i skærende kontrast til en stigning på 28 pct. i de globale aktier de seneste 12 måneder. Men den økonomisk vækst aftager. Den globale vækst ventes at blive på 5,5 pct. i år og 4 pct. næste år. Selv om virksomhederne har haft rekordindtjening i år med en stigning på 45 pct., så skal investorerne altså vente lavere afkast i den kommende tid. Festen er slut. Der kommer en ny “normal” med lavere vækstrater i de kommende år.
Uddrag fra Citi:
Be Not Afraid of Slower Growth
As we begin preparing for Outlook 2022, Citi analysts expect growth to endure. The most likely scenario is that global EPS growth rates could average 7%-8% over the next two years.
The period of COVID-19 disruptions and stimulus could give way to a “new normal”, with global GDP gains ongoing, but decelerating. Supply shortages may diminish as consumer goods spending moderates. Citi analysts expect COVID-19 to abate as well, with new social practices, vaccines and treatments making it manageable.
Ironically, the 28% price rise for global equities over the past 12 months is a source of risk for investors. With modest upward pressure in yields, diminished Fed bond purchases, slowing inflation and sustained economic growth, investors may want to change expectations and portfolios.
Global equities, with dividends and price appreciation, could generate mid to high single digits returns for coming year. But for bond investors, the yield environment points to another year of negative real returns for global bondholders, but less negative than in 2021.
Global growth may exceed 5.5% in 2021 and fall below 4.0% in 2022. This may “feel much slower” after the unusually large 45% surge in US and global corporate profits in 2021. This deceleration assumes a broadening services expansion and a strong near-term outlook for goods production and trade driven by inventory rebuilding.
With US bond markets now pricing in 4-5 rate hikes by the end of 2023, intermediate duration US fixed income valuations have improved. Citi analysts have raised our allocation to intermediate Treasuries, investment grade US corporate debt and municipal bonds for US-taxed investors, leaving the fixed income and cash allocation mildly underweight.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Real results may vary.
