Fra Danske Bank:
Asger Wilhelm Dalsjö, [email protected] , Assistant Analyst
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In the US, the December Jobs Report is released. We expect recovering jobs growth at +80k, and unemployment rate at 4.5%. High-frequency indicators have pointed towards recovering labour demand towards the end of the year, and late seasonal hiring could still provide a lift for the December figures. In addition, University of Michigan’s first consumer sentiment survey of the year will be released in the late afternoon.
The US Supreme Court could rule on President Trump’s use of emergency tariff powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) this afternoon. If the court rules against Trump, we expect the administration to quickly rebuild the tariff wall under alternative authorities. Markets will also follow if the court orders the administration to refund the tariff payments that firms have already made. Betting markets currently estimate a 30% chance of the court upholding the tariffs.
In the euro area, we receive the November retail sales data. Retail sales have been significantly higher in 2025 compared to previous years following a rise in the first part of the year. However, in the past five months growth has ended so it will be interesting to see if consumers start to spend more again amid improving household finances.
In Sweden, the GDP indicator and production figures for November will be published. Overall, the macroeconomic outlook has continued to improve towards the end of 2025, according to indicators. Monthly GDP is notoriously volatile but is expected to show an increase today.
In Norway, the December inflation figures will be released. We believe that slowing cost growth, low global inflation and gradually lower rents will contribute to a decline in core inflation. We expect that core inflation in December was about normal, and with somewhat lower inflation than normal in December last year, we expect that core inflation rose to 3.1%. This would likely leave the outlook for monetary policy unchanged.
Economic calendar
In China, December CPI rose to a 34-month high of 0.8% y/y, driven by higher food prices ahead of the New Year holiday, while full-year inflation sank to a 16-year low, reflecting subdued domestic demand. PPI deflation persisted at -1.9% y/y in December, suggesting ongoing overcapacity and price competition among producers.
In geopolitics, the US Senate voted 52-47 to advance a resolution limiting President Trump’s ability to take further military action against Venezuela without congressional approval. The move follows the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, raising concerns over a prolonged campaign. The resolution faces steep hurdles, including passing the Republican-led House and overcoming an expected Trump veto. Meanwhile, Trump stated that US oversight of Venezuela, including control of its oil revenue, could last for years, describing plans to rebuild the nation “in a very profitable way.”
US officials are reportedly discussing lump sum payments to Greenlanders to encourage them to secede from Denmark and potentially join the US, with figures ranging from USD 10,000 to USD 100,000 per person. Denmark and Greenland have rejected the idea, with the support of European leaders.
In the US, jobless claims landed close to expectations at 208k (SA), with non-seasonally adjusted claims reaching 300k due to typical year-end layoffs of holiday workers. December’s announced layoffs dropped to 35.5k according to the Challenger Report, the lowest since July 2024, while hiring announcements remained subdued at 10.5k. Additionally, flash Q3 productivity data showed a sharp acceleration (+4.9% q/q AR), causing unit labour cost growth to slow significantly to -1.9% q/q AR or +1.2% y/y. With unit labour costs historically correlated to inflation, the productivity uptick could help ease price pressures moving forward.
Defence stocks rallied after President Trump proposed increasing the 2027 military budget to 1.5 trillion, significantly above the current budget authority of 925 billion. Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin rose 2.4% and 4.3% respectively, rebounding from Wednesday’s declines following Trump’s threats to block dividends and buybacks unless production accelerates. European defence stocks also gained but began losing momentum later in the session.
In the euro area, the unemployment rate declined to 6.3% in November after being steady at 6.4% in the previous six months. The number of unemployed persons fell by 74 thousand, driven by declines in both Spain, France and Italy while German unemployment was slightly higher. The labour market thus tightened towards the end of 2025 which is a key argument for the hawks in the ECB arguing for not lowering rates further, in combination with elevated wage growth.
In Sweden, December flash inflation surprised on the downside, with CPIF excl. energy at 2.3% y/y (cons: 2.6%). Core inflation remains above target but has now undershot expectations for two consecutive months. November’s sharp decline of -0.6% m/m has not rebounded as anticipated, with December’s monthly change at 0.3% m/m, within a normal range. Further details explaining the downside surprise will be released next week.
In Norway, manufacturing production increased by 2.4% m/m in November. However, the 3M/3M growth declined further from -0.5% to -0.9%, reflecting a continued downward trend in manufacturing activity, driven by weakness in non-oil-related industries.
Equities : Equities edged lower yesterday, but the more important signal remains the underlying rotation dynamics. Several cyclical indices ended the session in positive territory, including both the Dow and the S&P 500. Notably, the S&P 500 equal-weight outperformed the market cap weighted index by approximately 110bp. Add to this picture the Russell 2000 up by 1.1% yesterday, and looking globally, small caps outperformed large caps for the fifth consecutive session.
In other words, 2026 has started with a clear rotation and a broadening out of last year’s equity rally, rather than a continuation of narrow leadership. In the US yesterday, Dow +0.5%, S&P 500 +0.01%, Nasdaq -0.4%, and Russell 2000 +1.1%. This morning, Asian equity markets are mixed. Futures point to a higher open in Europe, while US futures are modestly lower.
FI and FX: The USD again yesterday followed by the NOK that rebounded on a day of mixed risk sentiment and a rise in US yields and ahead of the release of the US jobs report today. The SEK for once, was one of the weakest performing currencies among the G10. EUR/USD traded around 1.16 with the 10Y US yield rising to 4.18 again. EUR/SEK rose back to around 10.75. EUR/DKK still traded at an elevated level, but the upwards pressure from earlier in the week did show signs of easing yesterday.
See also our in-depth FI and FX morning comment *
Euro Area Macro Monitor – 2025 ends with a solid growth momentum , 9 January
China Headlines: US-China relations take a hit after Venezuela raid, PMIs recover, CNY strengthening continues , 8 January
The Nordic High Yield Market – Q4 25: Like a year on its own , 8 January
Executive Briefing – Volatile politics, steady economies , 7 January
Flash Comment Denmark – Greenland has only limited impact of the Danish economy , 7 January
Reading the Markets Norway. Norges Bank to sell NOK3bn in NGB 1.75% 09/29 and NGB 3.75% 06/35 , 5 January
Report completed: 9 January 2026, 07:00 CEST
Report first disseminated: 9 January 2026, 07:35 CEST
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Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.