Danske Bank: Påvirkning fra Trumps told vil forstærkes hen mod vinderen

Uddrag fra Danske Bank:

Tariff impact set to intensify towards winter
• The US economy has continued to evolve well in line with
our expectations, and we make only small adjustments to
the forecasts. While current tariff levels are slightly higher
than we expected in early summer, more front-loaded
stimulus from the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ and recent easing in
financial conditions mitigate downside risks to growth.
• We forecast 2025 GDP growth at 1.6% (unchanged) and
2026 at 1.4% (from 1.3%). In quarterly terms, we think
majority of the negative tariff impact on growth will be felt
over Q3 and Q4 and expect sequential growth to recover
towards 2026.
• Inflation is also developing in line with our earlier
forecasts. While strictly tariff-driven inflation has so far
been limited, majority of increased costs will be passed
through to consumer prices only towards the fall. We
maintain our headline inflation forecast at 2.8% in 2025
(unchanged) and 2026 at 2.6% (unchanged), and our 2025
core inflation forecast at 3.0% in 2025 (unchanged) and
2026 at 2.8% (unchanged).
• We still expect the Fed to resume 25bp rate cuts from
September and follow up with quarterly reductions until a
terminal rate of 3.00-3.25% is reached in September 2026.
We see increasing two-sided risks around the policy rate
outlook. Elevated inflation expectations, easier financial
conditions and more supportive fiscal policies could force
the Fed to delay rate cuts further, while political pressure
could have the opposite effect.