Det euroopæiske aktiemarked ventes at ligge stille i dag på grund af det amerikanske centralbankmøde. Det store spørgsmål er, om Fed-chefen Powell vil udtrykke sig mere moderat end nogle af sine centralbankkolleger, der har lagt op til en snarlig afvikling af det opkøbsprogram, der holder renten nede. Men de tre centralbankmedlemmer, der har været mest højrøstede i kravet om en politik-ændring, har dog ikke stemmeret i Fed i år. Det udlægges af nogle som tegn på, at Powell vil være mere moderat. For andet år holdes centralbankmødet virtuelt. Det holdes normalt i Jackson Hole ved Teton-bjergene i Rock Mountains.
Uddrag fra Fidelity/Dow Jones:
Stocks Seen on Edge as Powell Speech Awaited
Caution ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech will likely keep European stocks in check on Friday. In Asia, shares wavered between small gains and losses, the dollar was a firmer along with oil and gold, while Treasury yields barely moved.
Equities:
Most European stock indexes are unlikely to break free of recent trading ranges Friday, with investors treading carefully before Jerome Powell’s speech, which could offer clues on the Federal Reserve’s plans for tapering stimulus measures.
Some investors are betting the Fed may slow those plans if there are signs the economic recovery is faltering.
“What investors want to hear is that, in response to an impressive improvement in the [U.S.] economy, the Fed is planning to gradually reduce their extraordinary measures because they’re not necessary anymore, but will do so incrementally,” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth, US.
However, three Fed officials said in separate television interviews Thursday that the time to cut back on central-bank bond-buying stimulus is looming.
With inflation running at unexpectedly high levels and uncertainty about whether it will moderate next year, “we want to get going on taper, get the taper finished by the end of the first quarter next year,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said on CNBC. Mr. Bullard was giving his view on when the Fed should wrap up its bond- buying stimulus totaling $120 billion a month.
None of the three Fed officials–James Bullard, Robert Kaplan and Esther George–is a voting member of the FOMC this year.
Forex:
The dollar has held gains in Asia, with the Dollar Index edging further above the 93.00 level.
DBS said currencies may weaken against the dollar due to potential short-covering of the U.S. currency ahead of Powell’s speech. Market participants think they may have been too hasty in brushing aside the Jackson Hole symposium as a non-event, DBS added.
Bank of America said the euro should continue to weaken against the dollar as the European Central Bank looks set to announce more quantitative easing, while the Fed will start tapering asset purchases soon. It expects EUR/USD to fall to 1.15 by year-end.
China’s central bank is likely to conduct a targeted cut in banks’ reserve requirement ratio in the near term amid rising risk of a growth slowdown, Nomura said.
The PBOC said in a meeting with other ministries that it will step up financial support for rural areas, including cutting the RRR. Nomura believes an RRR cut is unlikely to be enough to reverse the growth downtrend, though it helps increase liquidity and prompted more bank lending. It also thinks that the possibility of an interest rate cut is also on the rise as the world’s second-largest economy faces more headwinds.
Bonds:
U.S. Treasury yields were unchanged in Asia after they pared gains on Thursday as the situation in Kabul deteriorated.
“The difficulties in Afghanistan will bolster the perception of U.S. markets as a source of safety in a chaotic world,” said asset manager Louis Navellier. He sees the dollar strengthening and stocks rising while Treasurys gain in price. “What happens when things are uncertain is that Treasury bond yields fall.”
