Deutsche Bank mener, at den tyske økonomi nu tager fat – med en forventet vækst på 4 pct. for hele året mod tidligere forventet 3,7 pct. Men der er usikkerhed omkring valget i september. De Grønne er i meningsmålingerne blevet større end de borgerlige unionspartier. Det kan føre til, at der bliver en hel vifte af koalitionsmuligheder for at få etableret en ny regering. Den nye grønne kanslerkandidat Annalena Baerbock kan ændre billedet.
Economy ready for take-off – election polls hanging in the balance
The catalysts for a strong expansion of the German economy during the summer half are falling into place: Global demand is picking up strongly and the vaccination momentum is finally accelerating. Given the slightly smaller than expected drop of Q1 GDP (-1.7%) and upward revisions to H2 2020, we have lifted our GDP forecast for 2021 from 3.7% to 4.0%. Meanwhile election polls are hanging firmly in the balance. The nominations of Annalena Baerbock and Armin Laschet as chancellor candidates have clearly helped the Greens to gain ground. The current shift in voters’ sentiment allows for a whole bunch of coalition options.
