Deutsche Bank har lavet en omfattende analyse af Tysklands fremtid som økonomisk power-house, og det er skræmmende læsning. Mens Tyskland er stærk i den traditionelle industri og i den eksisterende grønne teknologi, så kan hverken Tyskland eller EU hamle op med amerikanerne og kineserne i Kunstig Intelligens (AI) og i resten af den avancerede højteknologiske udvikling. Det kræver i hvert fald en politisk kraftanstrengelse fra den kommende regerings side og fra EU med en betydelig optrapning af investeringer i forskning.
Germany in the next decade:
Ambition and potential
Germany/the EU’s role as geopolitical player is not expected to advance
markedly. At the onset of this decisive election year, Germany finds itself
confronted with an increasingly multipolar world, a weakened liberal, rule-based
world order and rapid technological change.
How to future-proof Germany’s economic model – insights from our SWOT
analysis. Against this challenging global backdrop, the next government has to be
well aware of how to improve Germany’s strengths and work on its weaknesses:
(i) deepening of the EU (digital) single market, (ii) wisely using its fiscal space,
(iii) keeping the competitive edge in advanced manufacturing and (iv) safeguarding
social cohesion.
While at the same time, it is crucial to improve the digital infrastructure, raise
potential growth and further develop VC markets. Key threats stem from rising
economic nationalism and an accelerated Green-tech/AI
race.
Germany is falling behind as a research and innovation power house. With
respect to Green-tech, Germany is well positioned to keep technological
leadership and reap the benefits of adopting the technologies by exporting
competitive products. An important outlier is the evolution of foreign regulatory
frameworks and industrial policy initiatives. In terms of big data and AI, the picture
looks less rosy. Germany (and the EU) are unlikely to catch up in the AI race.
They struggle, in particular, to transfer AI research into viable business models
and applications.
Complacency or reactive policies are no options for the new government –
“High-Tech Made in Germany” might turn out to be an upside scenario. Strong
reform effort of both the government and corporate sector is needed in order to
secure Germany’s place in the “best-of-all-worlds” scenario. This requires a
proper allocation of R&D investments, reaping the benefits of industrial data and
an accelerated diffusion of cross-sectoral technologies like AI.
