Resume af teksten:
På trods af en beskeden stigning i forbrug hænger Europas økonomiske vækst stadig bagud grundet en høj besparelsesrate blandt forbrugerne. I første kvartal af 2026 brugte europæerne €85,74 ud af hver €100 af disponibel indkomst på varer og tjenester, kun en lille stigning fra €85,70 i slutningen af 2025. Den nuværende bruttoopsparingsrate på 14,26% er stadig højere end før pandemien, hvor den lå stabilt på 12,5%. Til sammenligning er den amerikanske opsparingsrate på 10,2%, hvilket understøtter en stærkere økonomisk vækst i USA. I Europa udgør forbrug normalt lidt over halvdelen af BNP, og et fald i opsparingsraten til niveauet før Covid kunne øge efterspørgslen svarende til omkring 1% af BNP.
Fra ING:
Europe still has a consumer problem. While household spending has picked up modestly in recent quarters, Europeans continue to save a much larger share of their income than before the pandemic, limiting an important driver of economic growth.
For every €100 of disposable income, Europeans spent €85.74 euros on goods and services in the first quarter of 2026, up only marginally from €85.70 in the fourth quarter of 2025. The increase was somewhat stronger compared with the previous two years. From the end of 2023 until mid-2025, the share of income spent on goods and services hovered around €85.
Yet the current 14.26% gross savings ratio (the share of disposable income not spent on goods and services) remains well above pre-Covid levels. During the five years before the pandemic, this ratio was stable at 12.5%, meaning households spent around €87.50 out of every €100 of income on goods and services.
In the US, by contrast, the gross savings ratio stands at 10.2% (4Q2025) and has come down from pre-Covid levels (graph 1). Household consumption continues to provide relatively strong support to the US economy amid solid demand for goods and services. European households remain more cautious, with higher savings acting as a drag on consumption.
Gross household savings rate
Lower household consumption is weighing on growth*, both relative to historical levels and even more so relative to the US. For years, a gradual normalisation of the savings ratio towards pre-Covid levels was seen as a potential source of support for European growth. So far, there has been little meaningful progress.
In Europe, household spending typically accounts for just over 50% of GDP. If the savings ratio were to fall from first quarter levels to 12.5%, this would imply additional demand for goods and services equivalent to about one percent of GDP. A decline to a level similar to that seen in the US would imply additional demand worth around 2% of GDP.
Kilde: ING, https://eur02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/
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