Resume af teksten:
Oliepriserne faldt med cirka to dollars, mens aktiemarkederne styrkedes, og både korte og lange renter faldt i de fleste økonomier. Det skete trods fortsatte angreb mellem USA og Iran, da fokus nu skifter mod sektorer som halvledere og AI. Japans finansminister opfordrede til øget indenlandske investeringer i aktier og statsobligationer, hvilket styrkede yen og sænkede 10-års obligationsrenten med 10 basispoint. Den amerikanske 30-års rente er nu på det højeste niveau siden før finanskrisen i 2008, og tilsvarende renteniveauer er set i Storbritannien og Japan. New York Federal Reserve-formand John Williams udtrykte bekymring over, at AI kan bidrage til inflationspres. ECB’s referat fra sidste møde viste en enighed om at øge renten med 25 basispoint. Volkswagen overvejer at lukke fire tyske fabrikker på grund af stigende konkurrence fra kinesiske bilproducenter. Norsk inflation for juni er en vigtig datapunkt, men nogle data er forsinket. Sveriges inflationsforventninger for juli offentliggøres af Origo Group.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
Yesterday’s market movements followed the pattern that has characterized the market recently. Oil prices fell by about two dollars, stock markets strengthened and both short- and long-term rates fell in most economies. It happened after a few days with the opposite pattern, driven by the new attacks between the US and Iran. A notable difference, however, was that the attacks continued yesterday, which shows that the market is now focusing more on, for example, semiconductors and AI. Japan’s finance minister also mentioned overnight that it wants to promote households and pension funds to increase their domestic holdings of stocks and government bonds, which strengthened the Yen and lowered the 10-year yield on government bonds by around 10 basis points.
The US 30-year yield is now at the highest level since before the financial crisis in 2008 . The development is a global trend, where, for example, corresponding interest rates for the UK and Japan are also at record levels. The development reflects, among other things, that investors are demanding higher compensation for inflation risk and increased fiscal uncertainty, as well as a higher general demand for capital.
New York Fed Chair John Williams said yesterday that AI is now his biggest concern about inflation . Unlike the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, Williams emphasized that AI can create upward pressure on inflation through stronger demand, which in the long run could force the Fed to raise interest rates.
The ECB hike was not precautionary , as was made clear yesterday by the minutes of the last meeting. All members supported a 25 basis point increase and said that the energy shock, unlike in April, is now considered to have had more lasting effects.
Another blow to German industry, after reports that Volkswagen may close four German plants. An important explanation is the increased competition from Chinese automakers, who are taking market share both in China and in export markets, as well as higher US tariffs.
Colleagues Jussi Hiljanen and Filip Carlsson published FI & FX Strategy this morning, read more here . Later today, at 10.00 a.m., the IEA will publish its monthly oil report.
Nordic key stories
Today’s most important data point is Norwegian inflation for June . Due to technical problems at Statistics Norway, some data will not be published, including CPI-ATE. For the CPI, we expect an increase of 0.1 percent at a monthly rate and a 3.0 percent year-on-year rate, and for CPI-ATE, which comes with a delay, we expect it to land at 0.4 percent at a monthly rate and 3.2 percent at an annual rate. The inflation outcomes for June and July will be particularly important for the assessment of whether Norges Bank raises the interest rate as early as August. The figures should be interpreted as preliminary, while we await the date of the full statistics.
For Sweden, Origo Group’s inflation expectations for July will be published at 08:00 CET. Money market participants’ expectations are currently anchored at around 2 per cent for the longer horizons, while expectations for one year are at 1.7. Households’ inflation expectations, which are measured by KI and published in the Economic Tendency Survey, are on the other hand still significantly higher, at 7 per cent, although they have fallen from around 7.5 per cent in April.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/78205
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
