Fra Danske Bank:
The first days of 2026 have shown that the new US NSS is not just a paper but a real strategy that the Trump administration is committed to follow. So, what to expect next?
First, we kindly ask you to give us 5 minutes and respond to our Reader Prediction Survey for 2026 .
In our previous edition, we were right in forecasting US action against Venezuela, but we may have been inaccurate in forecasting a regime change in the country. It seems the Trump administration had struck a backdoor deal with the inner circle of Maduro, with the newly sworn-in President Delcy Rodríguez, and will run the country alongside with her, at least for now. We do not think the US is in a rush to promote an election in Venezuela.
US State Secretary Marco Rubio, who has accepted the role of officially walking the administration back from Trump’s often most radical comments, has tried to assure NATO allies that the US is not considering a military invasion of Greenland, but instead they are planning to make a buy offer. We will see what happens next.
In our view, more likely than US military action on Greenland, is a renewed flare-up in Iran. The US and Israel could use the current anti-government protests as a pretext for another military intervention, this time with an aim to topple the Islamic regime. After the assault on Venezuela, President Trump has also threatened Colombia and Mexico, both countries that he accuses of illegal narcotics trade. However, as Trump seems to be in good terms with Mexico’s leader Claudia Sheinbaum, we consider any military action very unlikely. Trump has also agreed to meet with the Colombian President Gustavo Petro soon. Hence, outright military action against Colombia seems far-fetched at this point. Then again, so did the idea of a US bombardment of Venezuela 6 months ago.
In our section on Ukraine, we write how Ukraine has lost the spotlight once again as world focus has shifted to the Western Hemisphere. Behind the scenes, there has been some progress in talks regarding the security guarantees, though. In the Middle East section, we write about the increased probability of a US intervention in Iran and Ayatollah Khamenei’s plan to flee to Moscow if unrest intensifies. And in our section on China, we write how Trump has opened a new front with China in Latin America, well in line with the new NSS.
In under the radar, we discuss the souring relationship between the Gulf giants, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the rising security threat in the region posed by the Houthis in Yemen.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.