Der bliver ikke tomme hylder i 2022, men derimod bliver der en række gennemgribende forandringer, der fører til en helt ny økonomisk udvikling, der vedrører globaliseringen, indtjeningen og innovationen, vurderer Goldman Sachs, og som vil føre til betydelig volatilitet. Man kan sige, der opstår en helt ny forsyningskæde. Derfor bør investorerne holde øje med de nye tendenser og være parate til følgende: At udvide det geografiske investerings-perspektiv, der bliver en følge af pandemien, at investere mere utraditionelt og selektivt for at håndtere volatiliteten, at erkende innovationens voksende betydning og at virksomheders levetid bliver meget kortere på grund af voksende forandringer, og at lægge sig rigtigt i den grønne udvikling, der fører til brede økonomiske og samfundsmæssige ændringer.

Uddrag fra Goldman Sachs:

Supply Change

In 2022, we expect a year not of empty shelves, but of wholesale changes to the composition of macroeconomic and market drivers. In other words, the supply of key components such as monetary policy, inflation, returns, and alpha is set to transition in the new cycle. We expect:

• Extreme injections of monetary liquidity and fiscal support to become a more challenging mixture of tighter policy and fiscal drag, particularly in the US.
• Globalization’s multi-decade containment of inflation to erode as shelter, wage, and environmental constraints raise inflationary baselines.
• High equity returns—previously fueled by declining interest rates, rising profits, and multiple expansion—to moderate in line with earnings growth.
• Alpha opportunities to migrate from major factor tilts to more idiosyncratic outcomes dictated by innovation and disruption.

In our view, these supply changes may result in temporary imbalances and volatility but are essential in the transition to a more healthy and sustainable expansion.

In this edition of the Market Know-How, we explore how investors may best respond, with emphasis on:

• Expanding a portfolio’s geographic footprint to improve company-specific access to post-COVID-19 trends and cyclical recovery.
• Implementing non-traditional investments to amplify selective positioning, diversify return streams, and manage episodic volatility.
• Active positioning and nimbleness with the recognition that disruptive innovation is accelerating and company lifespans are collapsing under the force of change.
• Investing as a steward of both capital and the environment to be on the winning side of broader economic and societal transitions.