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Virksomheders indtjening i andet kvartal 2026 kan afgøre udviklingen af amerikanske aktier, ifølge en rapport fra Ben Snider, chefstrateg hos Goldman Sachs. Indtjening har drevet hele S&P 500’s 21% afkast over de seneste 12 måneder. Der forventes en vækst på 22% i S&P 500’s indtjening pr. aktie. Investorer fokuserer på resultater fra store teknologivirksomheder, især deres investeringer i kunstig intelligens. AI’s økonomiske omkostninger mellem 2026 og 2031 skønnes at være 7 billioner dollars. I mellemtiden er global gældsudstedelse af hyperskalære virksomheder steget til 107 milliarder dollars i juni 2026. Guldprisen forventes at stige i anden halvdel af 2026, drevet af centralbankers opkøb og porteføljemæssig diversifikation. Emerging markets ser en stigning i tunge industrier, især teknologier relateret til elnet og produktion, hvilket afspejler den stigende betydning af AI og genindustrialisering.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
Second-quarter company earnings announcements, which kick off the week of July 13, could determine the future direction of US stocks, according to a recent report by Ben Snider, chief US equity strategist in Goldman Sachs Research: Company earnings drove all of the S&P 500’s 21% return over the last 12 months. “The importance of earnings strength in lifting US equities this year puts the onus on the upcoming Q2 2026 reporting season to help extend the market rally,” Snider writes. Expectations for second-quarter earnings are high after companies comfortably beat analyst expectations in the first quarter. The consensus of industry analysts is for S&P 500 earnings per share to grow by 22% year over year. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts 24% S&P 500 EPS growth for the whole of 2026.
Investors will be focused on the results of the biggest technology companies, gauging their returns on investment from heavy capital spending, Snider writes. These companies showed some evidence of their ability to monetize artificial intelligence (AI) in the first quarter of the year, with positive revenue revisions, large backlogs, and rising gross margins. But while those results drove strong short-term rallies for some of the hyperscalers, concerns over weak free cash flows, increased equity and debt issuance, and uncertainty about the eventual market share of new cutting-edge models have weighed on hyperscaler stocks in recent weeks, Snider adds.
How AI Capital is Changing Finance
AI is driving an industrial reorganization across the economy. Funding the AI buildout—estimated to cost $7 trillion between 2026 and 2031—is expected to require every possible capital instrument: equity, public and private debt, sovereign capital, and new joint-venture structures, “some of which have yet to be invented,” says Dan Dees, co-head of Global Banking and Markets, in Harnessing AI for the Real Economy , a new white paper from Goldman Sachs Investment Banking. AI’s disruptive impact on software companies, which drove a selloff in software stocks in the first half of 2026, is only the start of this transformation. The other 99.5% of the global economy—including manufacturing, robotics, defense, and energy—has yet to experience the full influence of AI. Whether a sector thrives or stalls is a question of engineering but also of financing, the white paper notes.
Capital requirements are rising rapidly. Global year-to-date debt issuance by hyperscale companies reached $107 billion in 2026 as of June 23, exceeding 2025’s full-year volume and dwarfing 2024’s total of less than $20 billion. Private infrastructure and real estate funds are playing larger roles: Infrastructure funds raised a record $221 billion last year, and their growth may accelerate, potentially reaching $3 trillion in assets by 2030. “The scale of the AI buildout exceeds what traditional bank lending and public capital markets could previously efficiently finance, but that’s now quickly evolving,” says Christina Minnis, global head of the Alternatives Origination Group, global head of credit & asset finance, and head of global acquisition finance within the Capital Solutions Group. New instruments are emerging. Private credit facilities now finance individual data center campuses exceeding one gigawatt. Sovereign wealth funds and pension funds have moved from passive allocators to direct co-investors in infrastructure. Leveraged finance and high-yield bond markets are now financing AI infrastructure operators whose credit profiles fall outside investment-grade thresholds—broadening the capital base supporting the buildout. Read the full white paper for more on how the economic impact of AI differs from previous technological revolutions and which companies stand to benefit.
Why Gold Prices Could Rise Again
After a slump, the price of gold is forecast to climb again in the second half of 2026, according to Goldman Sachs Research. These gains are expected to be driven by strong buying from central banks, a likely shift in the market’s expectations for interest rates, and private investors diversifying their portfolios. Gold has rallied 123% since 2022, but it fell by about $300 in the first six months of this year to $4,016 per troy ounce as of June 29. Goldman Sachs Research projects that gold will reach $4,900 by the end of 2026, driven primarily by emerging market central banks diversifying their reserve holdings. Gold buying by central banks has slowed in recent months, but their demand for diversification is likely to persist, according to Lina Thomas, senior commodities analyst in Goldman Sachs Research. A recent World Gold Council survey shows that a record 45% of the 76 central banks surveyed between February and May expect to increase their own gold reserves over the next 12 months.
Thomas points out that there are a few challenges for gold prices in the near term. Markets are pricing in rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year amid inflation concerns, which could be limiting demand for gold, both as a hedge against a weakening dollar and through rate-sensitive ETFs. That said, Goldman Sachs Research projects that the Fed will cut—not hike—rates, albeit not until next year. The shift in market pricing from hikes to cuts could help investor demand for the precious metal to recover. Read the full report from Goldman Sachs Research on its outlook for commodities.
The HALO Effect Is Boosting Stocks in Emerging Markets
Heavy industries are surging in emerging markets amid rising investor demand for stocks linked to electricity grids, utilities, and manufactured goods, according to Goldman Sachs Research. A basket of emerging markets stocks in “capital-intensive” industries would have returned 115% since late 2025 (as of June 12), write Sunil Koul, the head of global emerging market equities at Goldman Sachs Research, and Tarun Lalwani, an emerging markets analyst. That compares with a 7% gain for stocks in the “capital-light” basket. The capital-intensive basket still trades at a 20% valuation discount to its capital-light counterpart, despite stronger expected earnings momentum in 2026 and 2027. “We expect the outperformance of capital-intensive stocks to persist given stronger fundamental momentum and tailwinds from strategic investments in these sectors due to geopolitical and energy security considerations,” they write. “On the other hand, capital-light businesses in sectors like software and IT services remain increasingly at the risk of disruption from artificial intelligence.” The trend reflects the growing influence of what investors call the HALO effect—“heavy assets, low obsolescence”—a label for capital-intensive, highly regulated companies that deliver essential goods and services over the long term. The investment rationale is rooted in re-industrialization, rising defense spending, and the massive physical infrastructure buildout required to support AI development, with hyperscalers expected to spend trillions on data centers worldwide.
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