SEB har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af CDON:
The merchant of merchants
We initiate coverage of CDON with a midpoint DCF equity value of SEK 850. CDON is the leading marketplace in the Nordic region, with 2.3m customers (8% of the population) and over 1,500 connected merchants. CDON offers an exposure to structural growth as consumption shifts online and high margin
potential reflecting the oligopolistic nature of marketplaces. Growth is asset light (commission model, no WC need), which also drives a high ROCE.
The leading Nordic marketplace – an oligopoly-like margin opportunity
Our analysis shows that the top-three marketplace operators typically take a combined 45-50% share of total online spend in a market. The inherent strength in a marketplace business builds from a mutual benefit of “all” buyers being able to find “all” sellers and vice versa. Here, CDON has carved out a position as the leading consumer brand and marketplace across the Nordic four country markets. We believe Amazon.se will accelerate the consumer shift to online and drive the marketplace channel share of total retail spend. The commission-based revenue model requires no working capital and gross margins are close to 95%. We reckon this drives EBIT margin expansion and resulting high ROCE.
Generalt om Commissioned Research: Bemærk, at man bør se bort fra eventuelle kursestimater i såkaldt commissioned research, og den underliggende analyse skal også tolkes med forsigtighed, da negative aspekter ikke nødvendigvis fremhæves.
